Survivorship Bias Lesson – How Only Studying the Winners Can Mess Up Your Foresight
In 1943, statistician Abraham Wald and the Statistical Research Group at Columbia University were asked where to add armor to American bombers coming home…
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Cuban Elites Are Telling Kids to Fight Delta Force. The Last Man Who Said That Is in Brooklyn.
On Russian state television, Mariela Castro Espín — daughter of Raúl Castro — called the Cuban people to zafarrancho de combate, battle stations, and…
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ICE Arrested the Sister of Cuba’s GAESA Chief — Then Rubio Revoked Her Green Card
On May 22, 2026, ICE/HSI arrested Adys Lastres Morera in Miami. She is the sister of Ania Guillermina Lastres Morera, executive president of GAESA — the…
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Why Normalcy Bias Can Wreck Your Decisions
The most expensive sentence in any planning meeting is four words long: “that’s never happened before.” Normalcy bias is the mind’s quiet refusal to prepare…
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Raul Castro Indicted and Arrest By the U.S. Armed Forces Is Next
On May 20, 2026, federal prosecutors in Miami unsealed a superseding indictment charging Raúl Modesto Castro Ruz — 94 — with conspiracy to kill U.S.
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DOJ: China Locked In a Shipping Cartel. The Timing Is Sus.
On January 22, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed a superseding indictment in the Northern District of California against six Chinese companies —…
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Cuban Intelligence Archives Could Change the World
On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe flew to Havana. He met Colonel Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro — head of the Castro family’s personal security detail…
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Lying about intelligence for game theory purposes
On May 14, 2026, a cargo ship was sunk off the coast of Oman and a tanker was seized at an anchorage in the United Arab Emirates.
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Castro to Be Indicted
On May 14, 2026, CIA Director John Ratcliffe landed in Havana — only the second sitting CIA director to do so in 67 years.
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Trump Wins at Beijing Summit
The Beijing summit wrapped May 14, 2026. Xi Jinping walked away with a fentanyl tariff cut from 20% to 10%, a one-year pause on the rare-earth export…
