Reliable Intelligence for the World’s Most Visionary Leaders
Competitive Futures is a strategic intelligence and foresight firm established in 2002. We advise Fortune-scale corporations and national governments on competitive strategy, geopolitical risk, and long-horizon scenario planning. Our principal is a Fellow of the Council of Competitive Intelligence with thirty years of practice and a track record of being right before the headlines caught up — analysis consequential enough to earn personal sanction from the Russian Federation.
From the desk
Latest Analysis
- Robot War in Haiti: Why Nobody Is Stopping El Salvador
Robot war in Haiti: El Salvador has 2,000+ troops there, most outside the UN mandate. Who commands the force, and who answers for it? - Was Jensen Huang Compromised? How Spy Services Work a Target
Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia CEO after reports that China’s Ministry of State Security targeted him. Being targeted is not a crime. Here is how it works. - Iran Threatens the U.S.: The Plots That Reached a Courtroom
The Treasury Secretary moved onto a military base over Iranian threats. Courts in New York, Hamburg, and London show why: the Iran plots that ended in convictions this year.
Explore by topic
Guides to Intelligence and Foresight
Start with the subject you need. Each guide maps our analysis, methods, and case material on one theme.
Forecasting: Methodology and Our Track Record
How we forecast, and the calls we made years before they came true.
Strategic Surprise and Early Warning
Why smart organizations get blindsided, and how to see it coming.
Intelligence Collection and OSINT
Open sources, public records, human sources, and the ethical lines.
AI and the Future of Intelligence
What artificial intelligence changes for analysis, and what it doesn’t.
More: Strategic Foresight · Cognitive Bias · Intelligence Services Around the World · Enforcement Risk · Full Library
Since 2002, Competitive Futures has delivered strategic intelligence to:
IBM · General Motors · Siemens · 3M · DuPont · Johnson & Johnson · Cummins · Toshiba · The National Government of France · The Sovereign Government of Monaco
Our principal has briefed:
The Wall Street Journal CEO Summit · The National Council of Monaco · The Government of H.S.H. Prince Albert II of Monaco · The United States Intelligence Community · Audiences on four continents across thirty years
Systemics Quarterly Brief · Latest edition
Q3 2026: The World’s Siege Engineer
In the third quarter the war moved into its financial phase. Our quarterly brief for institutional subscribers tracks how sanctions enforcement is shutting hostile regimes out of the dollar club, with a scoreboard of 31 formal institutional consequences, from Hormuz to Havana. Intelligence through 30 September 2026; publication 20 October.
What We Do
Competitive Futures offers five lines of work, delivered individually or as integrated engagements. Each produces a named analytical deliverable and a defined decision-support output.
— Competitive Intelligence
— Scenario Analysis
— Geopolitical Risk Analysis
— Strategy Consulting
— Keynotes and Executive Education
How We Work
We are specialists in open-source intelligence and the classical analytical methodologies that preceded the digital age and still outperform it. Our work draws on structured analytic techniques, the foresight and scenario-planning traditions developed across the late twentieth century, the competitive intelligence discipline for which our principal is a Fellow of the governing professional body, and the rigorous sourcing standards of serious journalism and academic research.
We study what competitors and foreign governments do, what they say, what their incentives are, what historical patterns predict, and what their actions reveal. From that material, rigorously interpreted, we produce inferences that are often right before consensus catches up — as our published record demonstrates.
Our analysis is fact-based, independently sourced, and verifiable. Our product is the analytical work itself.
Why Competitive Futures
The analytical methods we use were developed and refined inside national intelligence services across the twentieth century. We apply those methods outside institutional constraints — with the independence private-sector and government clients require from an analytical firm they retain rather than report to. That independence produces analytical product that is rigorous, defensible, and genuinely predictive.
Since 2002, we have delivered predictive, falsifiable analysis on economic, political, and national security trends. We have designed intelligence systems for organizations and deployed in an operational capacity to assess risk in high-stakes environments. We have produced memorable events and trained executives around the world to improve their abilities as analysts and decision makers.
In 2016, our principal published analytical work on Russian intelligence operations that the broader analytical community did not match in the open until years later. In 2022 he was personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation for that analysis.
Competitive Futures is a consultancy that has tested its services when it matters most. Our clients love us and dictatorships fear us.
It would be a privilege to serve your organization.