We believe that most organizations fail to see systemic change coming — not because the evidence isn’t available, but because the analytical methods required to interpret it have fallen out of fashion. Strategic decisions get made on the basis of consensus narratives, available-sample data, and institutional habit. Then the world shifts, the narrative collapses, and the organizations that relied on it are caught.
Competitive Futures exists to provide the analytical alternative. We apply the open-source intelligence tradecraft and classical foresight methods that predate the digital age — and that continue to outperform it — to the strategic decisions of Fortune-scale corporations and national governments. Our work is fact-based, independently sourced, and built to be defensible under scrutiny. Our product is the analysis itself.
We were founded in 2002 by Eric Garland, who has practiced strategic intelligence and foresight since 1997. The firm has operated continuously since, advising clients on four continents on competitive strategy, geopolitical risk, and long-horizon scenario planning. Our principal’s analytical work has been published by major outlets, recognized by the professional body that governs the competitive intelligence discipline, and — in the case of his open-source analysis of Russian intelligence operations — consequential enough to earn personal sanction from the Russian Federation.
We work best with leaders whose decisions carry real consequences and who would rather have a rigorous analytical product in hand than a reassuring one. If that describes your organization’s current moment, we should talk.
Principal: Eric Garland
Eric Garland has practiced strategic intelligence and foresight since 1997. He is the principal of Competitive Futures, which he founded in 2002.
Garland is a Fellow of the Council of Competitive Intelligence, a formal recognition from the governing professional body of the competitive intelligence discipline. He is the author of Future, Inc.: How Businesses Anticipate and Profit from What’s Next (AMACOM, 2007) and How to Predict the Future…and WIN! (Wallingford, 2011). He has been quoted or profiled by the BBC, Politico, the Chicago Sun-Times, The Atlantic, Harvard Business Review, and The New York Times.
Over thirty years of practice, Garland has advised Fortune-scale corporations and national governments on competitive strategy, geopolitical risk, and long-horizon scenario planning. Client engagements have included IBM, General Motors, Siemens, 3M, DuPont, Johnson & Johnson, Cummins, Toshiba, and the national governments of France and Monaco. He has delivered keynotes and executive education on four continents, including to the Wall Street Journal CEO Summit and to H.S.H. Prince Albert II of Monaco.
In December 2016, Garland published a 127-post analytical thread on open-source evidence of Russian intelligence operations against American democratic institutions. The thread was read by millions, changed the national analytical conversation, and was later named by The New York Times as one of the twenty-five most important tweets in history. He produced the analysis using exclusively open-source methods, without access to classified material. In May 2022, the Russian Federation personally sanctioned Garland for that analysis, placing him on a list alongside the President of the United States, the Attorney General, and three directors of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Garland began his career in Paris in 1995 and is natively bilingual in Canadian French. He trained in strategic foresight under the futurist Joe Coates from 1999 onward. He holds a B.S. in International Business from the University of Vermont and an M.A. in International Affairs from the Elliott School at George Washington University.
He lives and works in Stowe, Vermont.