Cuba Watched Us Shoplift Maduro. The Game Is Over—and They Know It.
In January, the United States captured Nicolás Maduro in a 140-minute military operation with zero American casualties. Cuba’s closest ally — and their primary source of subsidized oil — gone overnight.
Then we destroyed Iran’s military in Operation Epic Fury. Then we declared a global naval blockade. Any sanctioned vessel, anywhere on Earth, can be boarded and seized by the United States Navy.
Cuba watched all three. And then the Castro grandson tried to send Trump a secret letter through a businessman with no diplomatic credentials. He got sent back to Havana.
They’re not negotiating. They’re begging. Iran had a military 15 times the size of Cuba’s — ballistic missiles, drone fleets, a navy — and it went down like a Holstein cow sat on a house made of popsicle sticks. Cuba’s air force can’t fly because they have no fuel. Their tanks are from the 1950s. And they’re 90 miles from Florida.
The Cuban regime will end peacefully or militarily. The question is how much cardio the Marine Corps gets out of the deal.
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Eric Garland is a career intelligence analyst sanctioned by Vladimir Putin in 2022 alongside three CIA directors. His 2016 Game Theory Thread was named by the New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
Represented for speaking by Executive Speakers Bureau: https://executivespeakers.com/speaker/eric-garland
Substack: https://ericgarland.substack.com
TikTok: @gametheorytoday
SOURCES:
— Operation Absolute Resolve / Venezuela: U.S. DOD, January 3, 2026
— Operation Epic Fury / Iran: U.S. DOD, February 28, 2026
— USNAVCENT worldwide blockade extension: Seatrade Maritime News, April 16, 2026
— Castro grandson secret letter: Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2026
— Cuba military strength: GlobalFirepower 2025; MilitaryPowerRankings.com
— Cuba oil blockade / 90% fuel reduction: NPR; Verfassungsblog, April 7, 2026
— Russian tanker humanitarian waiver: Al Jazeera, April 2, 2026
— U.S.-Cuba Havana meeting: Axios, April 17, 2026
— Cuba-Russia intelligence / Lourdes SIGINT: FAS; NBC News; CSIS
— Cuba-China intelligence / Bejucal: CSIS, December 2024
— Iran-Cuba partnership: Middle East Institute; Diálogo Américas
