Cheap Gas, Sad Putin — the First War That Lowered Gas Prices
Morgan Stanley cut its Brent forecast to $75 a barrel for Q3 and Q4 2026 — down from $90 — its second cut in two weeks, and now projects a global oil surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027. Crude just closed its worst quarter since early 2020. More than 60 million barrels sit loaded on tankers under a U.S. sanctions waiver, most with no clear destination. Meanwhile Russian pump prices have passed 100 rubles a liter, and Moscow — the world’s number-two oil exporter — is arranging to import jet fuel as Ukrainian drone strikes take refineries offline.
Every prior Gulf conflict raised American pump prices; this one is ending with gas cheaper than when it started. The mechanism: a sanctions waiver issued as a ceasefire instrument put stranded barrels on the market that peacetime politics never could, while record production in the Americas fills every gap. Cheap gas for American drivers and a poorer Kremlin are normally opposing goals — unless the market is flooded with everyone else’s oil. Ukraine attacks Russia’s export volume; the glut attacks its margin. The surplus is a forecast, not a fact — so the tell to watch: the waiver expires August 21. Does Washington extend it?
Eric Garland is an intelligence analyst personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation in May 2022 for his work on Russian intelligence operations. He is the author of the 2016 “Game Theory” thread, named by The New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
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SOURCES
U.S. Department of the Treasury / Department of State — sanctions waiver, June 2026 (expires August 21, 2026)
Morgan Stanley Commodity Research — note of June 29, 2026, via Bloomberg and Reuters, June 30, 2026
ICE — Brent front-month settlements, Q2 2026
Kpler / Vortexa tanker-tracking data, via Bloomberg, July 2026
Reuters — Russian fuel crisis: pump prices above 100 rubles/liter; jet fuel import preparations, July 2026
Al Jazeera — “With Hormuz reopened, has the oil shortage turned into a glut?”, July 2, 2026
