The Truth About U S Canada Tariffs
The United States and Canada did $872.3 billion in trade in 2025 — second only to Mexico, and nearly double U.S.-China trade, which fell 25% last year to $494.6 billion. Canada is the largest buyer of American goods and services on earth: $425.9 billion in 2025, ahead of Mexico at $390.1 billion and almost triple China at $163.2 billion. The dependencies run deeper than the totals. Canada supplies 63.4% of U.S. crude oil imports, delivered by pipeline into Midwest refineries that run 73% Canadian crude and are physically built for it. It supplies nearly 100% of U.S. natural gas imports at 8.6 billion cubic feet per day, and more uranium to U.S. nuclear plants than any other country — 32% of 2025 deliveries, against 7% U.S.-origin, in the same year American production tripled. Vermont buys about a quarter of its electricity from Hydro-Québec on a contract that runs through 2038. And NORAD remains the world’s only binational military command, established 1958.
The tariff fight is real — 50% duties took effect August 22, and Canada’s retaliation list arrives the Tuesday after Labour Day. But look at what the tariffs don’t touch: the oil, the gas, the uranium, the electricity. Both governments are escalating around the things neither can afford to stop trading, while the physical interdependence — pipelines, transmission lines, refinery equipment — doesn’t move on a news cycle. The question worth watching is whether the September 8 retaliation round stays inside those same guardrails.
Eric Garland is an intelligence analyst personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation in May 2022 for his work on Russian intelligence operations. He is the author of the 2016 “Game Theory” thread, named by The New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
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SOURCES
Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, country trade summaries for Canada, Mexico, and China, 2025 figures. U.S. Census Bureau, Top Trading Partners, year-to-date goods trade through June 2026. Canada Energy Regulator, Market Snapshot: Overview of 2025 Canada-U.S. Energy Trade. U.S. Energy Information Administration, “U.S. uranium production more than tripled in 2025 and was the highest since 2017,” August 28, 2026. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “Canadian Oil Important for Midwest Gasoline Prices,” May 9, 2025. Vermont Department of Public Service, Hydro-Québec supply share and contract term (via February 2025 reporting). Department of National Defence (Canada), North American Aerospace Defense Command — the world’s only binational military command, established 1958. White House, Section 338 proclamations of July 20, 2026, effective August 22, 2026; NPR, coverage of the collapse of trade talks and Canadian retaliatory tariffs, August 2026. Abacus Data and Liaison Strategies, Canadian federal polling, August 2026.
