Socialists Are Nervous in Latin America
Socialists across Latin America are having a very bad month, and it’s worth looking at all three at once. Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro — the strongman who wouldn’t leave after losing on paper — is now in a New York jail cell, where he pleaded not guilty to narco-terrorism charges. Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega didn’t wait for a jail cell; he simply announced that Nicaragua will not hold elections again. And Colombia’s outgoing president, Gustavo Petro, is refusing to hand over power — even though he wasn’t on the ballot.
Here’s the board. On June 21, Trump-backed Abelardo de la Espriella beat leftist Iván Cepeda by about one point — roughly 251,000 votes — and the electoral council certified it on June 24. Petro won’t recognize the result: he claims, without evidence, that an Israeli cyber firm called BlackCore hacked the vote, so in his telling the election “doesn’t count.” De la Espriella — who is, unusually, a U.S. citizen and Miami resident — wants to be sworn in on August 7 at a military base, for security. Petro’s answer: those bases answer to me until the new president takes the oath, and I won’t let them secure the handover. Which is awkward, because Petro already lost his U.S. visa for telling American soldiers to disobey Donald Trump, and he’s under U.S. Treasury sanctions amid drug-trafficking allegations. So the question a professional actually asks: Maduro is already in a New York cell on trafficking charges, Petro is sanctioned over the same, and Ortega is next door in Managua — could three Latin American socialists end up on the same cell block?
Why should you care, way up here? Because the same doctrine keeps showing up — when a ruler stops respecting the vote, he starts losing the protections that sovereignty normally provides, and Washington has now run that play in Venezuela and is holding the pieces for others. This one is a question, not a prediction. I’m giving you the board; you do the thinking.
I’m Eric Garland. I’ve spent 30 years in strategic intelligence practice, and I’m personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation for my work on Russian intelligence operations. On Game Theory Today I walk through the questions a professional analyst actually asks about the news, not the answers you’re handed.
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SOURCES
U.S. Dept. of War / CBS / NBC News — capture, NYC detention & arraignment of Nicolás Maduro; pleads not guilty to narco-terrorism — January 2026
Reuters / U.S. State Department — Ortega ends elections; State calls the regime “an enemy of humanity” — July 20–21, 2026
Al Jazeera — Colombia transfer-of-power standoff; inauguration set for August 7 — July 20, 2026
PBS NewsHour / CNN — de la Espriella defeats Iván Cepeda by ~1 point (~251,000 votes); certified June 24 — June 2026
Islander News (Miami) — president-elect de la Espriella is a U.S. citizen and Miami resident — 2026
Al Jazeera / Middle East Monitor — Petro accuses Israeli cyber firm “BlackCore” of hacking the vote (no evidence) — June–July 2026
CNN / PBS NewsHour — U.S. revokes Petro’s visa after he urged U.S. soldiers to disobey Trump — September 27, 2025
U.S. Treasury (OFAC) — Petro sanctioned amid U.S. drug-trafficking allegations — October 24, 2025
