25 US Spy Flights Off Cuba: Same Pattern as Venezuela and Iran
Twenty-five US military intelligence-gathering flights off Cuba since
February 4, 2026 — P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, RC-135V Rivet
Joint signals intelligence platforms, and MQ-4C Triton high-altitude drones,
some within 40 miles of the coast, beacons on and publicly trackable on
FlightRadar24 (CNN analysis, Avery Schmitz, May 10, 2026). The political
escalation arrived in sequence: President Trump’s Truth Social repost of
Marc Thiessen’s “free Havana” comment, an oil blockade order, and an
expanded sanctions regime issued May 1, 2026.
This could be standard pre-positioning. It is also the third time in
eighteen months that the same surveillance aircraft, flying with their
beacons on, have shown up off a coast before something else happened.
The September 2025 Venezuela surveillance surge ended with US special
forces capturing Nicolás Maduro at the Fort Tiuna compound in Caracas
on January 23, 2026. The October 2025 Iran surveillance surge ended
with joint US–Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026. The aircraft seen
off Cuba in February through May 2026 are the same platforms used in
both prior cases. The question is whether the Cuban government negotiates
an exit, or whether the pattern resolves the way it did in Caracas and
Tehran.
Eric Garland is an intelligence analyst personally sanctioned by the
Russian Federation in May 2022 for his work on Russian intelligence
operations. He is the author of the 2016 “Game Theory” thread, named by
The New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
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SOURCES
White House — Executive Order, expanded Cuba sanctions regime, May 1, 2026
US Department of Defense / White House statements — Joint US–Israeli strikes on Iran, February 28, 2026
FlightRadar24 / ADS-B Exchange — open-source flight tracking data (CNN methodology, polled at 10-minute intervals, February–April 2026)
Truth Social — President Donald J. Trump, repost of Marc Thiessen comment on a “free Havana”
CNN — “US intelligence-gathering flights are surging off Cuba” — Avery Schmitz — May 10, 2026
CNN — “Inside the Fort Tiuna compound operation that captured Maduro” — January 23, 2026
CNN — “Timeline of US strikes in the Caribbean and Pacific” — November 2, 2025
