Cuba’s regime is freaking out. It’s starting to get weird.
The Cuban regime just tried to go around Marco Rubio by sending a secret letter to the White House through a businessman with no diplomatic credentials. He got turned away. But the letter tells you everything about where Cuba stands right now.Venezuela — gone. Maduro is in a cell. Iran — obliterated. The IRGC network that propped up allied regimes — shattered. And as of yesterday, USNAVCENT extended the naval blockade worldwide. Any sanctioned vessel, anywhere on Earth, can be boarded and seized by the United States Navy.Cuba is an island 90 miles from Florida that depends on ships for survival. Their air force can’t fly because they have no fuel. Their tanks are from the 1950s. Iran had a military 15 times larger — and it went down like a Holstein cow sat on a house made of popsicle sticks.The Cuban regime will either end peacefully and quickly or militarily and quickly. The question is how much cardio the U.S. Marine Corps gets out of the deal
🔔 Subscribe for daily intelligence analysis on geopolitics and strategic foresight.
Eric Garland is a career intelligence analyst sanctioned by Vladimir Putin in 2022 alongside three CIA directors. His 2016 Game Theory Thread was named by the New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
Represented for speaking by Executive Speakers Bureau: https://executivespeakers.com/speaker/eric-garland
Substack: https://ericgarland.substack.com
TikTok: @gametheorytoday
SOURCES:
— Cuba secret letter / Castro grandson: Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2026; Martí Noticias
— Rubio-Castro talks: Axios, February 18, 2026
— USNAVCENT worldwide blockade extension: Seatrade Maritime News (Marcus Hand), April 16, 2026
— Operation Absolute Resolve / Venezuela: U.S. DOD, January 3, 2026
— Operation Epic Fury / Iran: U.S. DOD, February 28, 2026
— Cuba oil blockade / 90% fuel reduction: NPR; Verfassungsblog (Atiles), April 7, 2026
— Russian tanker humanitarian waiver: Al Jazeera, April 2, 2026
— Mexico oil halt: NPR; Sheinbaum statement, January 27, 2026
— Cuba military strength: GlobalFirepower 2025; MilitaryPowerRankings.com
— Cuba-Russia intelligence / Lourdes SIGINT: FAS; NBC News; CSIS
— Cuba-China intelligence / Bejucal: CSIS, December 2024
— Cuba-Iran partnership: Middle East Institute; Cuba Center; Diálogo Américas
— UANI ghost fleet (570 ships): United Against Nuclear Iran
— Rubio on Cuba: Democracy Now!, March 31, 2026
