Social Cognitive Bias: Herd Instinct

Herd instinct is a legacy from our biological membership in the family of primates. We work better together in groups, and those groups need to show various kinds of cohesion in order to function. We learn early that we must show membership in those groups, or we will become isolated. As a result, human beings tend to reach decisions differently in groups than they would if they were facing the same problem alone. When facing rapidly evolving complex systems, herd instinct can be an impediment to creating a unique, powerful strategy.

It is a common trope that society prizes those who think differently and lead others. Consider the history and fates of several famous iconoclasts:

• Mohandas Gandhi
• Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
• Steve Jobs
• Freddy Mercury

Gandhi was seen as a radical, then shot to death. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. was seen as a radical, then shot to death. Steve Jobs fell out of favor for years, but then returned to his greatest triumph. Freddy Mercury and Queen were ridiculed for most of their early career as exemplars of the worst excesses of 1970s glam rock until they were given one more record by their label and told to behave like regular rock groups, only to produce Night at the Opera, which achieved their legendary success.

Society says that it prizes iconoclasts with original points of view, but it has a history of ridiculing or shooting people who exhibit those behaviors. Most people know this implicitly and conduct themselves accordingly.

Individuals are thus faced with a conundrum if they wish to ascend to the rank of leadership. If their expressed thoughts remain in harmony with the group, they may not face exile, but they might never distinguish themselves. If they express original thinking, they may be seen as no longer fitting within the corporate culture, might then draw the political ire of others in the hierarchy–or they may be seen as a candidate for more important work.

When evaluating the likelihood of scenarios, or when calculating the implications of trends and events on a given strategic system, the impact of herd instinct as a cognitive bias must be considered.

If the implications of some trend or event are radical for a given client firm or individual, it must be considered how discussing radical change might impact the group socially. Rather than repress full discussion of an issue, sophisticated intelligence analysts make a plan for how to inspire increasingly complicated discussions over time, potentially including a chronology for revelations so that the group has social space to incorporate new thinking and not fall prey to herd instinct.