Strategic mind traps from social biases
In my new course on Strategic Mind Traps, we look at the root causes of why our sophisticated management tools are overwhelmed by the tragicomedy of humanity to produce less-than-optimal outcomes. One of the most important groups of cognitive biases, first explored by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in their work on behavioral economics, is called social biases. These are the cognitive distortions about the future that result from the way humanity is organized into hierarchical groups for mutual benefit, also known as companies and government agencies.
Essentially, we can have all the predictive models and complex metrics we’d like – once we get into complex, hierarchical groups where we are seeking praise, avoiding blame, engaging in subterfuge and all the rest, our decision making models become distorted.
Social biases to be covered in the course
The topic of social biases just themselves would make a fascinating read – there are far too many to cover in a brief fashion for this preview.
Here are just some of the social biases to be explored in How to Avoid Strategic Mind Traps:
- False Consensus Bias “You guys all agree, right?“ False consensus bias is the tendency to over-estimate the degree to which other people share our assumptions, leading us to conclusions that are will be opposed by critical stakeholders. This cognitive bias is why exploring assumptions through trend data and open dialogue is critical.
- Notational bias “But this spreadsheet says we’re on the right track!” Notational Bias is the tendency of decision makers to over-emphasize the positive information received from quantitative data without recognizing that the metrics have been chosen to highlight successes and downplay shortcomings. This bias shows why metrics, however useful in tracking initiatives, must be examined themselves to make sure we are measuring that which will tell us we’re on the way to our preferred future.
- Just World Bias “I am doing fine, therefore the system is fair and functioning for all.“ Just World Bias is the erroneous belief that the results found in the world are due to fairness and a well-functioning system. Our own assent to a leadership position in the system is accepted as evidence of this fairness. This bias shows why leaders tend so often to miss the emergence of disruptive social movements, mistaking their own comfort for the stability of the system.
- Projection Bias “Obviously, everybody wants [insert cultural value from my country] and therefore sees the future the same way we do!” Projection bias is the faulty assumption that other people – whether in different social groups, companies, or nations – share our thoughts, beliefs, and values. This was on particular display in the 1990s and 2000s as Western executives looked at China and assumed that their consumption patterns and democracy movements were a sign that they wished to become like Denmark or Canada. This bias shows why diversity in the board room is a competitive advantage.
These are just a few of the social biases we’ll be covering at the International Competitive Intelligence Conference in Bad-Neuheim, Germany on April 22, 2016.
In our next preview, we’ll be covering memory biases.
Interested in more information about how to improve your organizations capacity for foresight and profitable decisions? Check out How to Predict the Future…and WIN!, a book that shows the 25 ways organizations get the future wrong, and simple ways to get back on track.
