Unfriending Communism in the Americas
The Dominican Republic ordered nine Cuban diplomats (Havana says ten) and their families — about 21 people — out of the country on August 13, giving them seven days to leave and citing Article 9 of the Vienna Convention, the provision that permits expulsion “without having to explain its decision.” It is the fourth government in 2026 to move against Havana: Ecuador expelled the entire Cuban mission on March 5 with 48 hours’ notice, after which Cuba closed its Quito embassy; Costa Rica downgraded relations to consular level in March, citing human rights; and Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella — who promised “no ties whatsoever to tyrannies” on July 27 — severed relations effective with his August 7 inauguration. Meanwhile, Raúl Castro was indicted in U.S. federal court on May 20 over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, and the Shield of the Americas security alliance — sixteen countries, launched in Miami on March 7 — pointedly excludes Cuba.
The obvious reading is four unrelated bilateral disputes, and indeed none of the four governments cited American pressure — only Havana did. But coordination problems flip fast. For sixty years, keeping ties with Havana cost nothing, because Washington’s objections were talk. This year the hemisphere watched Maduro jailed in New York, Petro sanctioned by Treasury, and a Castro indicted — and the calculation inverted: being first to break with Cuba used to be the risky move, and now being last is. One signal, four responses. The question worth watching: who moves fifth, and whether Havana’s remaining embassies in the hemisphere are still open at year’s end.
Eric Garland is an intelligence analyst with 30 years in strategic intelligence practice, personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation in May 2022 for his work on Russian intelligence operations. He is the author of the 2016 “Game Theory” thread, named by The New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
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SOURCES
Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, Article 9 — expulsion without explanation
U.S. Department of Justice — indictment of Raúl Castro, May 20, 2026 (1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown)
U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC) — sanctions designation of Gustavo Petro et al., October 2025
U.S. Department of State — visa restrictions on officials tied to Cuba’s overseas medical-mission labor-export program
Rio Times / Caribbean360 — Dominican Republic expels nine Cuban diplomats, August 13, 2026
Al Jazeera — Ecuador expels Cuban ambassador and mission, March 5–6, 2026
Euronews — De la Espriella: “no ties whatsoever to tyrannies,” July 27, 2026
MercoPress — Shield of the Americas launch, Miami, March 7, 2026
CBS News — Maduro jailed in New York after capture, January 2026
