Deep Dive: The CIA and My 2016 Game Theory Thread
BRIEFING N° 058 — Saturday, November 8, 2025 A deep dive on the convening of grand juries to prosecute John Brennan, former Director of the Central…
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You Must Understand Cognitive Bias and AI
Many organizations are using, or looking for ways to use, AI in their operations. The assumption is that AI provides quality intellectual services that would take humans considerably more time and money to produce. Some…
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What is a social cognitive bias?
From where we are sitting, intelligence is easy and cognitive bias is hard. When an analyst joins the profession, they might believe that 95% of the effort is in collecting and analyzing the intelligence itself–trying…
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Deep Dive: The Iraq War Intelligence Fraud
BRIEFING — Deep Dive: The Iraq War Intelligence Fraud An intelligence analyst walks the audience line by line through the 2002 National Intelligence…
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The End of Corporate Media
BRIEFING — The End of Corporate Media The problem with the news is not that it is partisan. The problem with the news is that it is dumb — and it is…
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I Got Sanctioned by Russia!
BRIEFING — I Got Sanctioned By Russia
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Did the United States Fail Ukraine?
BRIEFING — Did the United States Fail Ukraine? For thirty-five years — since the moment the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 — the United States has had…
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Why the Steele Dossier Wasn’t Legit
Intelligence analysis does not make the news very often. The audience is limited and the content will seem arcane at best. However, and unfortunately, the last ten years featured a very public use of so-called…
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Top 5 Reasons to Be an Intelligence Analyst
Do you like being right about things? Do you enjoy researching subjects too complex or controversial for the average person? Do you enjoy puzzles? And do you like to stop bad guys and/or help good guys? If you answered…
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Sensors, big data, and advanced algorithms will drive strategic intelligence
In Why Software Will Never Replace Strategic Analysts, I laid down a theme I’ll be covering in my closing keynote for the Business Forecasting and…
