Deep Dive: The Iraq War Intelligence Fraud
BRIEFING — Deep Dive: The Iraq War Intelligence Fraud
An intelligence analyst walks the audience line by line through the 2002 National Intelligence Estimate of Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction — the document the United States used to sell the invasion of Iraq to the public, the Congress, and the world — and shows what it really said, what it really did not say, and how the gap between the two was filled with material the U.S. Intelligence Community had every reason to know was unreliable.
The conclusion of this briefing is direct: America’s spy agencies owe the world an apology. Not a partisan one, not a political one — a professional one, from the institutions whose job it was to give the public a sober, source-evaluated read of a foreign threat and who instead delivered the kind of analytical product that nobody in the discipline of structured analysis would defend on its merits.
In this deep dive, intelligence analyst Eric Garland walks through the NIE as a working analyst would: how the key judgments were drafted, where the dissenting footnotes lived, how the Curveball single-source problem was handled, and how the document made its way into the public case for war substantially intact even as the internal challenges to it accumulated.
This is not partisan commentary. It is a structured retrospective of one of the most consequential intelligence products in U.S. history, drawn from the declassified record and the working frameworks of professional intelligence analysts.
WHAT WE’LL COVER
– What the 2002 NIE actually said in its key judgments — and what the dissenting footnotes said
– The Curveball single-source problem and how the IC failed to apply its own tradecraft
– The pressure environment around the drafting and clearing of the document
– The difference between an honest analytical mistake and an unrecoverable analytical failure
– Why this is the right moment to call this what it was: a fraud committed against the public
– Why America’s spy agencies owe the world an apology — and what that should look like
– What the next generation of analysts should learn from this case file
ABOUT THE HOST
Eric Garland is a strategic intelligence analyst with three decades of experience briefing Fortune 500 boards, government agencies, and military planners. He is the founder of Competitive Futures and the host of Game Theory Today.
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— Booking page: https://www.leadingauthorities.com/speakers/eric-garland
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Transcript
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it’s time for American intelligence agencies and the US Department of Defense to admit to the American people and to the world that it lied us into the war in Iraq to make amends so we can regain the moral High ground and move forward with the world a major episode here on Game Theory today guys it’s time for some Game Theory hi there I’m Eric Garland and I’m an intelligence professional I am an analyst I’m also an operative in the sense that I’m a collector and uh I do different things uh in the profession now for the last 28 years I started back in the mid 90s uh working what’s known as competitive intelligence which is the commercial application of uh basically spy tradecraft uh for corporate use uh all legal all ethical but it’s all born from Human intelligence uh techniques and practices that were pioneered by the Central Intelligence Agency British intelligence uh folks like that uh I’ve become sort of a public Ambassador for the field I’ve written books and , 7 secondspublished articles and and I’ve trained professionals now for over 20 years in the , 13 secondsfield and um to this day I’m I’m kind of constantly recruiting uh when I see people who have the right uh ethical , 22 secondscharacter uh the right smarts the right Personal Mastery uh I think they’d be you know a net positive to society if if , 32 secondsthey use those talents to collect information for our national security uh and and that can that can be in , 39 secondscompetitive intelligence still uh commercial applications for these things or it can be straight in for the government and uh I I enjoy this I I , 48 secondslike finding good people and telling them how to do something positive with their life now it it can be a hard sell , 56 secondssometimes with what’s happened in the past few decades to tell people that working for a spy , 3 secondsservice essentially is a net positive for Society for one thing it’s really hard to account for a lot of what you do in the intelligence Services is you , 12 secondsprevent bad things from happening and if you do your job really well nobody even knew that the thing might happen and , 19 secondsthey don’t know when you have acted to stop it from happening so really you don’t get to take a Victory lap there , 27 secondsand ideally nobody even knows what you’re talking about the file gets uh the file gets closed and sealed up and , 35 secondsput in a warehouse somewhere where no one will read it ideally for a long time uh and if you fail you probably , 42 secondscan’t discuss why you failed either because that might be uh a damage to the , 50 secondsinstitution or to the people themselves or might just cause emotional strain in in folks it might not have any real value on how to fix what went wrong CU , 59 secondsyou might have to expose the practices or the people involved uh so on both sides whether you’re doing your job well or you’re doing it very poorly it’s hard , 7 secondsto talk to the public about this sort of thing and there’s another aspect being American and that the American culture , 14 secondsbeing a spy is actually on the on the whole for the the totality of our history been generally a negative thing , 22 secondsyou go back to the the founding of the CIA following World War II President Harry Truman didn’t want a a time , 30 secondsintelligence service doing clandestine stuff it was his vice president Albin Barkley among others who convinced him , 37 secondsby showing him what the Soviets were up to and what other uh antagonists around the world were up to in terms of covert , 45 secondsuh action that really didn’t stop after World War II that we needed uh that we needed a Clandestine Service even in , 52 secondspeace time and that was the beginnings of the Cold War but if you go back all the way uh to the the time of the Revolutionary War you may know the story of Nathan hail who famously said I regret that I only have one life to give , 6 secondsmy my country George Washington was having trouble finding anybody willing to go be a spy Behind Enemy Lines for , 13 secondsthe British because to be a spy was to be inherently dishonorable to lack gentlemanly , 21 secondscharacter so this is a very necessary service of course uh so much so that we now have full-time uh clandestine , 29 secondsservices in every major country including the United States but we’re not China we’re not France we’re not Britain they had Espionage which is a , 38 secondsFrench word of course uh they had Espionage at the at the heart of their institutional cultures it’s really just , 46 secondshow they operate sunu uh wrote about this uh you know you got to know the enemy and uh so it goes all the way back , 53 secondsinto thousands of years of Chinese culture America not so but of course our first presidents were were big-time , 2 secondsusers of of spy products whenever they could get them out of different intelligence and uh operatives that they , 9 secondsput into the field Ben Franklin was a Wy old cat so was John Adams so was Alexander Hamilton Thomas Jefferson , 16 secondslearned a lot about Espionage from the French and George Washington may have been our number one Counter Intelligence president ever he knew that that that we , 25 secondswere a weak new country and that the foreign agents would be all over us um , 32 secondsnevertheless being a spy in America was not really an accepted practice and it wasn’t professionalized until about the , 40 seconds19 uh 50s and even then we have you know the public , 48 secondshas a generally negative image about Espionage in America uh you might hear about the CIA planning to uh to try and , 57 secondskill Fidel Castro with with poison cigars or or exploding cigars or whatnot we we hear about the Bay of Pigs , 5 secondsdisaster you’ll also hear about how the CIA missed the fall of the Soviet Union , 12 secondswhich it may have okay but the biggest failure by far was in the , 19 secondsdisastrous false intelligence that lied us into the Iraq War and I think it’s , 26 secondstime to draw a bright line between all the failures of intelligence that came , 32 secondsbefore 2002 2003 the runup to the Iraq War to us getting into the invasion of , 40 secondsIraq in 2003 and how we dealt with telling the public what we found of the Iraqi , 49 secondsthreat particularly where it involved weapons of mass destruction there’s a bright line between all of the Espionage , 56 secondswork that came before and that of event because that was an intentional deception of the world that resulted in , 5 secondsthe death of no fewer than a million Rockies and the death and injury and , 11 secondstorment of countless American Service members and wasted not only our blood , 18 secondsand our treasure but also America’s moral standing in the world it’s a disaster we’ve never dealt with and , 25 secondstoday I’m going to take you through the 2002 National test intelligence estimate produced by the Central Intelligence , 33 secondsAgency and all the other component agencies around the US government and I’m going to show you how dishonest that document really , 40 secondswas and I was thinking about doing a video about recruiting um new Personnel there’s a , 48 secondslot of people interested in serving their country and doing it in for intellectual work uh not everyone is built for combat right there’s got to be , 56 secondsa place for nerds to serve their country and the intelligence service is National Security is a a great way to go with that whether it’s policy or straight up , 4 secondsEspionage you know there’s plenty of stuff that you too can do to help secure your country but I was thinking it’s hard for , 13 secondsme to make this sale when we have this this tragedy and this Injustice that has never been exposed so , 23 secondsI want to take you through a document that was Declassified in 2014 and it’s the October 2002 National , 32 secondsIntelligence estimate about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program we’re going to go through line by line and it’s going to be apparent to you , 42 secondseven if you’re not an intelligence professional that what we were told in the news and what we were told by politicians and think tanks and Talking , 51 secondsHeads about why we needed to not invade Afghanistan there were plenty of good reasons to clean that regime out why why , 59 secondswe had to go to Iraq in such a hurry you’re going to see that you were lied to and I’m I’m going to give you , 6 secondsthe personal tour this document was Declassified by the Obama Administration in , 14 seconds2014 this is the October 2002 National Intelligence estimate about the nation , 22 secondsof Iraq’s continuing programs for weapons of mass destruction this was a classified , 29 secondsdocument uh where no foreign eyes were allowed you can see up in the upper right hand column here we have n o f o r , 38 secondsn that’s no forn and to the left it says top secret top secret uh is a , 47 secondscatchall uh classification for information that if were divulged outside of the channels that have been , 54 secondsallowed would cause very grave damage to National Security most people are pretty familiar with this this is supposed to , 3 secondsbe a document that represented our best understanding across all 16 agencies at , 11 secondsthe time and all of those put together are known as a National Intelligence estimate that’s when you put all of the , 19 secondsdifferent agencies opinions on something into one picture and this is usually um , 26 secondscoordinated by the director of Central Intelligence the head of the CIA these days it might be coordinated by the office of Director of National , 35 secondsIntelligence which has taken over some of the production of things like the presidential Daily Brief that the president and others get every , 42 secondsday um so this would have been a pretty big deal to get everybody’s idea of what’s going on in some country and what , 50 secondsthreat it posed to the United States so that’s a National Intelligence estimate on wmds this is the document that they used to justify the invasion of Iraq in March of 2003 not quite two years after uh the , 10 secondsAttacks of September the 11th we didn’t have the benefit of reading this , 15 secondsdocument for another 12 years after it was produced and during that period of , 23 secondstime as I’ve said there were a lot of people who implied that they had seen very convincing , 30 secondstop secret intelligence which uh indicated that Iraq was a clear and present danger to the united states that required an , 38 secondsinvasion thinking back of course the very implication that they knew these things it was a violation of uh their , 45 secondsoath but uh we were all trying to figure out what to do in the post 11 911 world so now we get the benefit of being , 53 secondsable to actually read the National Intelligence estimate so I’m going to take you through it it is hot , 2 secondsgarbage so there’s a bit of an AATA sheet here which means we would have we tried to say this but we would have said , 9 secondsthat and I’m not sure when that was produced um but they they changed page s first sub bullet under the first bullet , 17 secondsreplace the following Baghdad has mobile facilities well this is what they change it to Bagdad has mobile facilities for , 24 secondsproducing bacterial and toxin uh BW is bioweapons agents these facilities can , 31 secondsevade detection and are highly survival survivable within 3 to 6 months these units could probably could produce an amount of , 40 secondsagent equal to the total that Iraq produced in the Years prior to the Gulf War the Gulf War referred to the 1990 , 48 secondsinvasion of Iraq so uh this is just the anorada page but the the question that , 56 secondsyou know you get is wait a minute how many of these have we found in the intervening 25 years we invaded Ira did we find all these well of course we , 4 secondsdidn’t that’s much the point um but we’re now going back to the document they were originally dealing with to decide to invade Iraq and they’re like , 13 secondsyeah we think they might in a few months have as much as they used to have in the , 21 seconds80s but they never hit us in the 80s so that’s an interesting thing to compare to but don’t worry it gets worse um but , 30 secondsyou you see a lot of interest in bioweapons agents and my question because I live next to the post office , 37 secondsthat got hit after 911 in Washington DC and my friends worked at Vermont Senator Patrick Le’s office and their office got , 46 secondsa letter with some powder in it and all that one wonders if the anthrax there W that was sent to the post office was , 54 secondsthere as part of the justification that we now read is in the National Intelligence estimate which is that oh , 2 secondsSonam has bioweapons you know like turned up at the post office but you know we haven’t really seen a lot of Anthrax attacks ever since so I have a few questions , 11 secondsthere so let’s get into the meat of the document here Iraq’s continuing programs for weapons of mass destruction which of course we found out they really didn’t , 19 secondshave any at all and they they didn’t then and they don’t now and they never have and everyone basically lied to us , 27 secondsabout the whole thing so we we get to find out uh about how the document was made this estimate was approved for , 35 secondspublication by the national foreign intelligence board under the authority of the director of Central Intelligence head of the CIA , 42 secondsum it was prepared by certain sub offices there uh the National Intelligence officer nio for strategic , 50 secondsand nuclear programs generally we’re looking at like Russia China maybe Iran , 57 secondsIsrael um the National Intelligence officer for near east and south Asia where Iraq would have fit um science and , 5 secondstechnology and conventional military issues so conventional is non-nuclear Science and Tech probably , 13 secondscovers uh bioweapons and chemicals and stuff like that so that’s who put this , 20 secondstogether and it does not hold up too good now the scope note here talks about all the different intelligence products , 29 secondsthat went into the making of this estimate so a product is when an intelligence agency , 36 secondscollects up all this information and then it goes throughs their analysts their analysts go H what do I think that , 42 secondsmeans and they do some implications they they come to some conclusions they assign what’s known as , 50 secondsa confidence interval high medium or low how sure are we about our conclusion , 57 secondshere um and they’ll put out a a discreet distinct document about a topic sometimes it’s just from their , 5 secondsagency’s intelligence and sometimes it is uh known as all source so they might get uh some products from other agencies , 13 secondsto to go with theirs so the National geospatial Intelligence Agency might give their information over to the NSA the National Security Administration , 21 secondsthat uh National Security Agency pardon me um that does signals intelligence and so that satellite data can , 29 secondscan be used by the NSA or by the defense intelligence agency Dia or whatever um , 37 secondsthe FBI can contribute stuff about what happened on the US Homeland and this goes into a single document that’s a , 43 secondsproduct is the term of art so the estimate here Builds on the work and judgment uh and judgments of recent , 51 secondsintelligence Community products on this issue now let’s look at the dates it’s this is where it gets important current , 59 secondsand Future air threats to the US Homeland July 2002 now that seems pretty important because uh we just had a bunch of planes in the air that ran into , 7 secondsbuildings so we didn’t want that to happen again so uh we had some Homeland Security analysis small pox how , 14 secondsextensive a threat top secret December 2001 so that’s right after 911 , 22 secondsokay uh foreign missile developments and ballistic missile threat through 2015 so that would have been a you know 14-year , 29 secondsforecast produced December 2001 bioweapons threat to Global and US agricultural sector sectors March 2001 , 38 secondsso that predated September 11th biological warfare January 2001 so that , 45 secondspredated that’s the January 2001 of course is the end of the Clinton era and it gets a lot earlier Iraq steadily , 53 secondspursuing wmd capabilities top secret December 2000 of um you know that was the end of the Clinton Administration , 2 secondsworldwide bioweapons programs Trends and Prospects update 2000 emerging land attack cruise missile , 9 secondsthreats a forecast of capabilities 2000 to 2015 top secret December 1999 worldwide bioweapons programs , 18 secondsTrends and Prospects August of 99 reconstitution of Iraq’s nuclear weapon weapons program post Operation Desert , 26 secondsFox June of 99 foreign biological and chemical weapons threat to the United States July of 98 reconstitution of Iraq’s nuclear , 34 secondsweapons program October 97 so note that the Clinton , 42 secondsAdministration was was already taking out Iraq’s capabilities that that was you know , 50 secondsdesert fox um that’s post Desert Storm we kept Saddam Hussein in a box and this , 57 secondsis something I mentioned in my Game Theory thread of December 11th 2016 I believe I shorthanded it to anything , 4 secondsfunny popped up on the radar Inc came the missiles the Clinton’s the Clinton administration had been keeping Saddam , 13 secondsHussein’s capabilities very constrained so it’s very interesting they were not recommending that that we , 20 secondsinvade Iraq back during the Clinton days and we look at what went into the estimate that justifi the Bush , 27 secondsAdministration to do do so and they used a bunch of intelligence products from back in the Clinton days which nobody , 34 secondstold that to us right so that’s why we’re going through this now um by the way when you see things , 41 secondslike this uh this Blank Spot this is known as a redaction so top secret you , 47 secondsmight have some slashes after that Ts that would indicate where that intelligence came from or the name uh , 56 secondslike a code word that would identify the program um and that’s just not necessary for for the public to know about so it , 4 secondsgets taken out I think it’s pretty appropriate and uh no foreign no foreign eyes means even our our five eyes , 12 secondsPartners we we don’t want them to have this this is for the time being we put this product together just for American , 18 secondseyes and we may do uh a subsequent product that omits certain information to share with our allies but that’s what , 27 secondsuh some of the of the markings here I mean um I am I am noticing right off as , 34 secondssoon as you get into the meat of this of this National Intelligence estimate how tricky the language is it’s very , 41 secondslawyered so we’re talking about whether or not Saddam Hussein had the capability to hit Cleveland that’s how I put it , 49 secondscould they hit us not could they hit our their neighbors or our neighbors or our allies or our friends could they hit us , 58 secondsbecause that’s what we were being told after September 11th these planes hit the towers and they’re like condalisa rice comes out and says the you know we , 5 secondsdon’t want the Smoking Gun to be a mushroom a mushroom cloud so can they hit us and the documents that they use , 14 secondsto justify it to themselves that they then went out to the public and said oh yeah they’re a threat they used very specific language that allowed them , 22 secondswiggle room such as limited information saddam’s pursuit of nuclear weapons , 29 secondslimited information and Iraqi denial and deception basically they’re like well he must have weapons CU he won’t tell us , 36 secondseverything about his weapons programs not telling you about something is not the same thing as having a big capacity , 44 secondsto do something I also uh would deny having a nuclear weapons capability here at my house that , 52 secondsdoesn’t mean I have one but if I got in the habit if people ask me a direct question Eric do you do you have , 59 secondsuh a desire to make nuclear weapons at home I would deny it I would say no I don’t and I don’t have the capacity to , 5 secondsdo so continually denying something does not mean it’s happening and it doesn’t mean you’re all that sensitive about it , 13 secondsnow Saddam was a bad guy so of course he wanted to play that game and it probably suited him for people to think he might , 21 secondswant a nuke or he might get one CU that was his job he was a middleman and he was playing all sides against the middle , 28 secondsand he helped out the United States sometimes he helped out the Soviets sometimes he’d been on CIA payroll for decades he was he he was kind of a dodgy , 37 secondsguy so anyhow limited information and Iraqi denial and deception so the best intelligence services on , 45 secondsEarth got us into that war because they didn’t know enough that’s a justification for doing more Espionage not for invading a country and owning it , 53 secondsfor 20 years um we also get told about Recon stitution efforts that he’s trying to , 1 secondget back to what he was in the 80s which is he was never nuclear capable and his chemical weapons which he did employ , 8 secondsagainst Iran he couldn’t have hit Cleveland uh you know so too with biological warfare when we were to , 16 secondsbelieve after the hits on the post office in Senator Le’s office that there’s all these biological warfare , 24 secondsprograms um and they could be delivered a number of ways and that’s evident they’re trying to push that claim in this document as well but it’s a hell of , 32 secondsa long way from Cleveland and then the Iraqi ballistic missile program rising from the ashes well okay so you admit it had been , 41 secondsdestroyed and turned into ashes and the last the last page there non-missile weapons of mass destruction threats like we were to believe because , 49 secondswe all saw planes hit the towers in lower Manhattan and the Pentagon the actual Pentagon which was very alarming I was in Washington DC up the street , 58 secondsfrom the Pentagon that day uh I drove by the hole in the Pentagon um the next day it was pretty alarming guys but we were , 6 secondsto believe because of what we saw on television that the Iraqis could hit us with a missile and that was just a lie , 14 secondsso the latter pages in The National Intelligence estimate Doctrine and wdm’s , 21 secondscon continued restraint today question mark saddam’s decision making on weapons of mass destruction use covert acts , 30 secondsthey’re not making any definitive statements so even when this was classified if you got to look at it this is what it would have , 37 secondssaid it would it would have said he might that’s not the same that’s not what they told us they told us no he’s , 44 secondsgot it he’s gonna he’s a Mad Dog he’s going to use it we have to invade this place and then my favorite bit here the , 52 secondsIraqi Special Forces and intelligence Service uh h which doesn’t really exist didn’t then doesn’t now like no one really cared so uh and then there’s they you know the annex attempts to acquire aluminum tubes , 9 secondswhich as you’ll find out the intelligence Services didn’t really believe so it just kind of gets , 17 secondsdepressing from here um since people actually got on troop transports and invaded this country and a million , 24 secondsIraqis died and a lot of people got PTSD and died and had their legs blown off and just wasn’t very good so key , 31 secondsjudgments this is what they used to justify all this um Iraq’s continuing programs for , 40 secondsweapons of mass destruction right away we start with the weasel words because if you start a program and you do , 48 secondsanything towards it like you open a book that on Anthrax you have a continuing , 54 secondsprogram you know if you look at your lab equipment and go God I wish I could make a bioweapons agent you have a continuing , 1 secondprogram in fact you might never be qualified to say you don’t have a continuing program that that’s how nuts this , 9 secondswas we judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction programs in defiance of un resolutions and , 18 secondsrestrictions so what’s the key part there that they’ve continued the programs were the programs any good and is this judged by , 28 secondsthe un’s resolutions and the un’s restrictions or do we have our own National Security estimate for what’s , 35 secondsthreatening because we’re just concluding that this is really bad but what’s the standard here well you’re not going to get much of it so it says , 43 secondsBaghdad Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of un , 51 secondsrestrictions if left unchecked it will probably have a nuclear weapon during this decade so by 2009 , 59 secondscinr alternative View at the end of these key judgments the state department was the only agency that had the guts to , 6 secondssay no way they would not put up with it and they said we’re not hearing anything , 14 secondsthat we normally would through our diplomatic channels so no way nobody else thinks that they’re dangerous either God bless the state department , 21 secondsintelligence service we judge that we are seeing only a portion of Iraq’s wmd efforts owing to , 29 secondsbaghdad’s vigorous vigorous denial and deception efforts I mean thank God they weren’t slly denial deception efforts , 38 secondsthe implication there being they must have them and we conclude we judge that we’re only seeing a portion a large , 47 secondsportion a small portion 99% 1% 2% again that’s a justification to do a lot more , 55 secondsEspionage if you’re if it’s really that up in the air about how dangerous they are then you should get some I don’t know spies in there just a , 2 secondsthought but this is how they sold it Revelations after the Gulf War of 1990 starkly demonstrate the extensive , 11 secondsefforts undertaken by Iraq to deny information by the way note all the , 19 secondsadverbs and the descriptive vocabulary in here a vigorous denial starkly demonstrate how , 27 secondsabout just you know baghdad’s denial you know they they have a lot more going on they’ve deceived the world , 35 secondswhy vigorous why does it starkly demonstrate look if I demonstrate that there’s a gun pointed at your head I don’t have to strongly demonstrate it , 43 secondsyou don’t like a gun pointed at you right I don’t have to vigorously put poison in your coffee I just have to put , 50 secondspoison in your coffee there’s a lot of theatrical vocabulary here but then they , 57 secondslet off the they let off the emotional pressure here with we lack specific information on many key aspects of the , 6 secondswmd programs in Iraq so they didn’t have anything they this was crap from top to , 13 secondsbottom you know so it’s Stark and vigorous they’re they’re denying boy they are being bad they are denying what they have going on not that we know much , 22 secondsabout it uh okay thanks guys since inspections ended in 1998 Iraq has , 28 secondsmaintained its chemical weapons effort energized its missile program invested more heavily in biological weapons and , 36 secondsin the view of most agencies Baghdad is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program okay so they , 44 secondshaven’t necessarily maintained chemical weapons they maintained their effort it has a missile program and it’s energized uh what is an , 53 secondsunenergized missile program look like is that like a slovenly or a slacker missile prog program I I don’t know are the lazy ones less dangerous than the , 1 secondreally aggressive ones I I don’t know I don’t have a missile program here I’m denying it again you see why I might get invaded by uh by the Bush Administration , 9 secondsI’m denying that I have a weapons program here at my house but it’s true and they’ve invested more heavily , 16 secondsthe Iraqis have in biological weapons okay what’s a heavy investment do we have a number well don’t be looking for , 23 secondsthose that would take intelligence um that apparently wasn’t avail a to the president of the United States how much did they spend where did , 30 secondsthey buy it who sold them the stuff good luck with that and in the view of most agencies except for the ones that , 38 secondsactually specialize in nuclear stuff like the department of energy as you will see they believe that Baghdad is uh , 45 secondsreconstituting its nuclear weapons program okay Iraq’s growing ability to sell oil , 52 secondsillicitly increases bag Dead’s ability to pay for wmds and they’ve quadrupled they’re making a lot of money in oil hey , 1 secondman you ever been to Texas people make a lot of money selling oil um and you know it begs the question you know what you can’t send , 10 secondspetroleum over the Internet like it shows up in a ship sh go seize the ship when they sell the the petroleum it go a , 19 secondslot of times it’s in cash but sometimes it’s you know Financial transfers you can track that stuff get finsen on it get your European Partners on it it had , 26 secondsto go somewhere you know we can track these things somebody has to pump it onto a ship or they put it into a pipeline and then , 35 secondsthey crack it at a factory hey where’d you get that is that Iraqi oil I mean heck there are experts that can test what kind of petroleum it is and with , 43 secondssome reasonable degree of accuracy why not pursue the customers for these things ah we didn’t get told that oh they just Iraq has money therefore they , 50 secondscould buy um you know weapons of mass destruction it’s like yeah and if I had ham and rye bread I could have a ham , 57 secondssandwich right but okay this is the intelligence that we we were given Iraq has largely rebuilt missell , 6 secondsand biological weapons facilities damaged they largely rebuilt well do they have the roof on are they , 14 secondsoperational or they’ have they rebuilt them did they throw a tarp over the thing or what is it is it functioning , 21 secondsthey’ve rebuilt the facilities are the are there people in the facilities have they reconstituted their capabilities here and by the way this is this is now , 30 secondsDeclassified what are the capabilities uh good luck looking for that so although we assess Saddam does not , 39 secondsyet have nuclear weapons or sufficient material to make any he remains intent on acquiring them okay so remaining intent on having a horse does not make , 48 secondsyou a jockey in the K in the Kentucky Derby there’s a lot here about Saddam Hussein wants , 55 secondssomething people want lots of things that they don’t ever get um I have a continuing ongoing vigorous program for , 3 secondswashboard abs that I’ve never quite gotten to uh I’m not going to do a video on that part but it’s true um then we get into a lot of , 11 secondsconditional tense sentences here on if Baghdad could do this then it might do this which is not the same thing as going they’re going to hit , 19 secondsCleveland if Baghdad acquires sufficient Phile material from abroad it could make a nuclear weapon within several months to a year well uh , 28 secondsyeah you know if you get a lot of flour you might make pancakes or cupcakes who knows without such material from abroad , 36 secondsIraq probably would not be able to make a weapon until 07 or 09 owing to inexperience in building and operating centrifuge facilities to produce highly , 44 secondsenriched uranium and challenges in procuring the necessary equipment and expertise yeah they didn’t have the stuff to make nuclear weapons which they , 53 secondsadmit they didn’t have a new the the smok we don’t want the Smoking Gun to be uh a nuclear mushroom cloud they knew , 3 secondsfor sure and for certain Iraq couldn’t do this and they lied to us so who was the experts in in nuclear weapons well they’re at the department , 10 secondsof energy doe was created not for renewable energy was created decades ago to handle the nuclear weapons stockpile , 18 secondsthat’s why DOA exists end a report so doe didn’t buy this which hardly got underlined here they say most , 28 secondsagencies believe that sanam’s personal interest in and Iraq’s aggressive attempts to obtain high strength , 35 secondsaluminum tubes for centrifuge rotors by the way most agencies so we’re talking what FBI um coastguard intelligence Marine , 45 secondsintelligence Air Force intelligence you know they don’t necessarily have the ability and the , 52 secondstechnical expertise to make those assessments they sometimes have a belief that is based on other agencies with expertise their assessment you know the National geospatial Intelligence Agency , 7 secondshas to rely on the NSA for signals in intelligence for something you pick up off you know a radar or you know , 15 secondsTelemetry off a missile or uh you know Communications on a phone or a fax machine that comes from NSA doesn’t come , 21 secondsfrom NGA so NGA has to listen to NSA NSA has to believe as as far as satellite imagery is concerned and other , 29 secondsgeospatial intelligence what NGA believes so it’s a it’s a you know bit , 36 secondsof a round robin there so most agencies believe that um you know provide , 43 secondscompelling evidence that Saddam is reconstituting a uranium enrichment , 49 secondseffort okay doe however agrees that reconstitution of the nuclear program is underway but assesses that the tubes are , 58 secondsprobably not part of that program so this whole he’s trying to get , 5 secondsaluminum tubes the experts were like yeah but it doesn’t look like he’s putting together an enrichment capability , 14 secondsand so we said that the Coast Guard believes that that it’s a a nuclear enrichment program but doe doesn’t think , 22 secondsso oh okay that’s that’s what was going on here Rock’s efforts to reestablish and enhance its Cadre of weapons , 30 secondspersonnel as well as activities at several suspect nuclear sites further indicate that reconstitution is underway yeah well the Cadre of weapons , 40 secondsPersonnel like taking a bunch of resumes or going and getting the people is not the same thing as getting those people , 48 secondsto work with the strengthened aluminum tubes that you don’t have for the file material you also don’t have but they they’re making effort to , 58 secondsreestablish and enhance its Cadre of weapons Personnel these are all they these are estimates and assessments , 5 secondsabout efforts and desire nobody is saying these guys are showing up in a building that currently Works they’re going in the building they’re doing the thing they’re coming out the bunch of , 13 secondsfys material that they’re going to put in a rocket that will get to akan Ohio they never believed it they didn’t even , 20 secondstry to us they didn’t believe it so yeah getting on monster.com or , 27 secondsLinkedIn is not the same thing as having a real program uh let’s see we all agencies , 35 secondsagree that about 25,000 centrifuges based on tubes of size that Iraq is trying to acquire would be capable of producing approximately two weapons , 43 secondsworth of Highly enriched uranium per year I hope you all agree that having about a quarter pound of ham and four , 52 secondsslices of rye bread will approximately make two ham sandwiches but who cares that you agree on that it’s kind of fasile it doesn’t really matter certainly not a reason to get your leg blown off into cre or bosra just a , 7 secondsthought in a much less likely scenario Baghdad could make enough physi material well so why are we doing very less , 15 secondslikely scenarios here we’re talking about invading okay we assess that Bagdad has begun renewed production of mustard , 24 secondssarin cyclosarin and VX nerve gases but its capability is probably more limited now than it was at the time of the Gulf , 30 secondsWar oh okay like they have less than what they hit Iran with when we were paying the , 38 secondsIraqis to gas Iran there was a break in the Iraqi defenses and we tipped off the Iraqis that they were about to be , 47 secondsinvaded more heavily and they deployed these nerve agents we didn’t tell them to nerve gas them but we knew they had nerve gas and we told them that they , 56 secondswere going to be in trouble if they didn’t do something something pretty intense the Iraqis went ahead and did it it’s kind of left out of this report it’s kind of important don’t you think , 3 secondsand they’re saying it has begun renewed production although it’s not in other words they ain’t even where they were in , 11 seconds1985 they might be trying to get back there and that is different this is 2002 this is so to justify your cousin going , 19 secondsto Iraq and having PTSD or your dad never coming back or a million Iraqis dead and and torn mented by this that , 29 secondsthey weren’t even where they were with this stuff in the 80s okay an array of clandestine , 38 secondsreporting reveals that Baghdad has procured covertly the types and quantities of chemicals and Equipment , 45 secondssufficient to allow limited chemical warfare agent production hidden within Iraq’s legitimate chemical , 53 secondsindustry okay the rest of the document reads like they don’t have a lot of specificity here so , 1 secondthere’s an array of clandestine reporting I’m not really sure as to how much that matters what’s an array , 8 secondsthere’s a lot the way you describe that is with a low medium or high confidence interval but whatever although we have little , 15 secondsspecific information on Iraq’s chemical weapons stockpile Saddam probably has at , 22 secondsleast 100 metric tons and maybe is 500 metrons of chemical warfare agents , 30 secondsmuch of it l and much of it added in the last year okay if we have little information on , 37 secondsIraq’s chemical weapon stockpile how do we know that much of it was added in the last year I thought we didn’t have much , 45 secondsspecific information on it sounds like you’re pretty specific are you guys coming or going which way what were we doing , 52 secondshere Iraqis have experience in manufacturing chemical weapons bombs artillery rockets and project Styles so they can make stuff for their own uh defense sector okay thanks guys yeah we know that who who who outfitted them with that that would be the United States , 7 secondsokay we judge they have some lethal and incapacitating bow Warfare agents by weapons okay including Anthrax bombs , 16 secondsmissiles aerial Spurs Co and and covert operatives okay well we sold them a lot of this stuff and train whatever and it , 23 secondswas from the 80s none of this was new in 2002 chances are even that small box is part , 31 secondsof Iraq’s offensive bioweapons program what it’s 5050 is it or isn’t , 40 secondsit uh you know 5050 you’re you’re really non-committal that’s not high high confidence I guess , 48 secondsthey’re not saying it um and maybe it doesn’t matter that much Baghdad probably has developed , 55 secondsgenetically engineered bioweapons agents okay I mean these guys didn’t they had to trade their oil for food which you , 3 secondsadmitted they were doing but you said they did it too much they were making too much money and yeah it was a bunch of corruption which is not at all surprising given that petroleum is , 11 secondseasily fungible sailable in a lot of places and um you know there’s a lot of money changing hands and that’s a good way to get some corruption , 18 secondsgoing but um you know did they have enough to do like genome sequencing and you know genome you know gen engineering , 27 secondsof this stuff uh it seems unlikely but you know so they say probably okay Baghdad has , 36 secondsestablished a large scale redundant and concealed bioweapons agent production we’re always told about this stuff that they’ve got off camera it’s well it’s , 45 secondsit’s there you just can’t see it it’s in my pocket my girlfriend’s in Canada she’s in saskatchwan we met at Camp okay , 52 secondsguys this was to get us into a war I’m not trying to be overly harsh on a piece of writing here this is why your cousin came back you know injured and ended up addicted to oxycoton and then died early so this is pretty serious a Million Dead , 9 secondsIraqis and wasted blood and treasure they need to be held to a high standard at long last , 16 secondsyear but I don’t look too good Iraq maintains a small missile Force and and several development programs including drones intended probably intended to , 25 secondsdeliver biological warfare agents well you can do a lot of things with these drones right as we know but where are , 32 secondsthey going to you know deliver these we were told it was going to be up our nostrils gaps in Iraqi accounting to , 40 secondsuncom suggest that Sadam retains a covert force of up to a few dozen scud , 48 secondsvariant short-range ballistic missiles ranges of 650 to 900 , 54 secondskilom they’re in Mesopotamia that’s you know hitting Cleveland pretty hard they’re deploying their new Alam , 3 secondsand ab ABAB 100 ballistic missiles capable of flying Beyond 150 , 11 secondskilm as far as 300 kilometers which I checked the map is still not near , 18 secondsColumbia South Carolina for those interested baghdad’s uavs could threaten Iraq’s neighbors us forces in the , 27 secondsPersian Gulf and if brought into the United States the US Homeland yes and and if we brought you know a Reaper , 34 secondsdrone into your baby’s room it might hurt your baby like yeah if if we put an , 41 secondsApache helicopter in your Nursery it could threaten your kids but you’d have to ask how it got there so this is , 49 secondspretty damn silly let’s see um interesting though the director of intelligence Sur surveillance and , 57 secondsreconnaissance of the US Air Force which would be the subject matter expert on drones does not agree that Iraq is , 5 secondsdeveloping uavs primarily to be intended for delivery platforms for biological and chemical weapons the small size of Iraq’s new UA UAV strong suggest , 14 secondsstrongly suggests a primary role of reconnaissance all over all although uh chemical biological weapons delivery is , 24 secondsan inherent capability in other words the use these drones to fly around with a with a sensor on , 31 secondsthem to look if anyone’s coming into their country and I guess they could have a bunch of Anthrax on board but , 37 secondsprobably not and the the guy who thought that was the director of Air Force intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance which specialize , 46 secondsspecializes in aircraft based intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance in other words he’s probably the biggest expert on the , 54 secondsplanet and he’s like nah that’s not what they got yet the National Intelligence estimate States it like it’s fact when , 2 secondsthe guy who actually knows about the aluminum tubes is like no it’s probably not what this for and the guy that’s in charge of of drone capabilities analysis , 11 secondsis like no it’s probably not what that is but they sat there they not only lied to our faces they couldn’t even , 19 secondsconvincingly lie in the document it’s pretty sad we have low confidence in our ability to assess when Saddam would use , 28 secondsweapons of mass destruction we were told that he wanted to he wanted to hit Santa Barbara California that week that’s what we were being told we had to go to war , 36 secondsbut they’re like yeah we’re not really sure when he would do this Sadam could decide to use chemical and biological warfare preemptively against people in , 45 secondsan attempt to disrupt us War preparations and under in other words he might he might hit us with chemical and , 53 secondsbiological warfare if we attack him yeah countries tend to do that they tend to try and hit people that are threatening their countries it’s called National , 1 secondSecurity I mean I’m not a Saddam Hussein fan but you can’t like yeah I guess if he were attacked he might Counterattack with whatever he had well that seems , 10 secondspretty likely but you’re saying that’s the reason he might do it because he might get attacked then maybe don’t don’t attack him I you’re making it , 17 secondssound like there’s a peaceful uh option there that wasn’t highlighted for us in the corporate news no no , 25 secondsno but but they they go on with the fanfiction here Saddam might use chemical and biological warfare after an , 33 secondsinitial Advance into Iraqi territory you know but early use of wmds could foreclose diplomatic options for , 41 secondsstalling the US Advance as in if we invade he might hit us with that stuff though he might not because it would really piss us off which is correct , 51 secondsright and he probably would use chemical and biological weapons when he perceived he had irretrievably lost control of the military security situation but we’re unlikely to know when he reaches that point like now we’re crawling in one dude’s head like we judge that he’d be , 9 secondsmore likely to use chemical weapons than b like can they hit us no they , 16 secondscouldn’t he’s historically made tight control over the USU but but you know he he could in specific , 23 secondscircum well he for now they appear to be drawing a line short of conducting terrorist attacks against the United , 32 secondsStates fearing that exposure of Iraqi involvement would provide Washington stronger cause for making War well I thought you were saying that they wanted , 39 secondsto do that now you’re saying they don’t want to do that because it would piss us off and we’d invade them right makes sense actually it’s , 48 secondsalmost like he’s a rational actor who was on our payroll for three decades and a pretty smart guy who spoke great English huh well it sounds like they , 56 secondsknew the guy Iraq would probably attempt clandestine attacks against the US Homeland if Baghdad feared an attack , 5 secondsokay in other words the only reason that he would attack us if we attacked him that’s a lot of countries I mean I think Denmark would probably leave us alone if we didn’t try and like invade Copenhagen , 14 secondsI’ll bet if we tried to invade Copenhagen they’d be pissed and they’d probably attack us back don’t you think the Danish people would be pretty angry , 21 secondswith their government if the United States attacked Copenhagen and we we they didn’t chuck a snowball at us throw , 29 secondsa bunch of Legos underf foot while we’re Barefoot you know whatever weapons they have hit us in the head with an axe you know Viking style old , 38 secondsschool wouldn’t every country attack us if they were invaded by us unbelievable um such attacks more likely , 46 secondswith biological and chemical agents probably would be carried out by Special Forces or intelligence operatives I you know I’ll , 53 secondsgive you a shiny nickel for for everybody you know who knows about the Iraqi intelligence service they were not , 59 secondsparticularly famous then or now um they were known as the muhabat by the way and , 7 secondsit would have been director at nine though they don’t include any details about them uh the Iraqi intelligence service IIs uh this is the first and last time , 16 secondsyou will ever hear about these guys so pay attention kiddos probably has been directed to conduct clandestine , 24 secondsattacks so spies have probably been directed to do covert no kidding really wow how do you guys do it , 33 secondsthis is unbelievable I just I I’m I’m so impressed um uh against us and Allied interests in , 40 secondsthe Middle East in the event the US takes action against Iraq so in other words if we attack them they might send their spies at us wow thanks guys yeah we totally need to be there for 20 years , 49 secondsfor that okay the IIs probably would be the primary means by Iraq would by which Iraq would attempt to conduct any , 56 secondsbiological weapons attacks and chemical weapons attacks on the US Homeland though we have no specific intelligence , 5 secondsthat Stam zima’s directed attacks against the US Territory wait a minut so you’re saying their spies you had no intelligence that their spies were , 12 secondsplanning on attacking us because that’s what you do you either have an aircraft carrier that gets close to us and then launches planes or whatever you have missiles which they didn’t have either , 21 secondsthat you sended us from over there they swoop in and they hit Rutland Vermont or you have your spies go around and , 29 secondslike do a terrorist attack and they’re saying yeah that they didn’t really have a terrorist attack plan through their , 37 secondsspies which I guess means they didn’t have a plan to attack us with chemical or biological weapons you see what these , 44 secondsguys did they told us that they knew that that nasty old Saddam Hussein he wanted this stuff however he didn’t do , 53 secondsany of the things that would indicate that he really wanted it like telling spies to figure out how to put chemical weapons at a mall in Tulsa , 2 secondsOklahoma he didn’t even tell his Spooks to think about it and this is what we get , 9 secondsokay okay now this is where we go into a complete nonsense land Saddam if sufficiently desperate might decide that , 17 secondsonly in organization such as Al-Qaeda with Worldwide reach and extensive terrorist infrastructure and already engaged in a life or death struggle , 24 secondsagainst us could perpetrate this type of terrorist attack okay so he didn’t you know he he didn’t tell his own spies , 31 secondsthat he actually trusts and controls with a directorate that looks over all the other directorates and tortures them if they step out of line he didn’t tell , 39 secondsthem to play but you know what he might do he might give his precious chemical and biological weapons to his sworn enemies Al-Qaeda because the whole , 47 secondsreason that we paid him in the first place is cu he hated the religious nuts he was trustworthy he’s a guy that could work , 56 secondswith I don’t know you’ve all seen the picture of him of Saddam Hussein shaking hands with Donald Rumsfeld because they got along because Hussein was a guy we , 4 secondscould work with he was not a lunatic he was not nice but he was , 12 secondstrustworthy so here they’re like well so we he didn’t tell his own spies to commit any terrorist attacks against us , 20 secondseven though that’s the kind of thing they would do but you know what he might do maybe he might work with his sworn enemies and give them weapons that they , 28 secondswould almost certainly turn around and kill him with because they think of him as apostate because alqaeda hated Saddam , 35 secondsHussein too just like they didn’t like Bashar al-assad or any of those dudes and our Central Intelligence Agency , 43 secondsunder George Tennant had the tarity to suggest that these guys who wouldn’t tell their own spies to make a plan like that would , 52 secondstell their sworn enemies here have a bunch of our of biological weapons that you want to use on me right now in fact , 1 secondthey care about Iraq way more than Cleveland because it’s part of the um it is part , 9 secondsof the the Holy Land of the Muslim faith this is their backyard they hate Saddam , 19 secondsHussein Saddam Hussein we were supposed to believe would have given them chemical weapons to nerve gas him and , 27 secondsthat they would instead go hit a guitar store in Cherry Hill New Jersey okay guys fine finally , 34 secondson page eight here we get to State INR alternative view which I sum up as top to bottom I’ve worked with , 43 secondsthe guys in INR they are probably the hardest working and least known intelligence service in America and I have total respect for these guys , 51 secondsbecause they’re like the activities we have direct detected do not however add up to a compelling case that Iraq is pursuing a an integrated and , 59 secondscomprehensive approach next page to acquire nuclear weapons it might be but irr considers the available evidence inadequate to support such a , 8 secondsjudgment lacking persuasive persuasive evidence that Baghdad has launched a coherent effort to reconstitute its nuclear weapons program INR is unwilling , 16 secondsto speculate such an effort began soon after the departure of un inspecter or to project a timeline for , 23 secondsthe completion of activities that does not now see happening as a result State intelligence is unable to predict when , 30 secondsIraq could acquire a nuclear device or a weapon state department INR collects intelligence through diplomatic , 39 secondsCommunications in other words what our friends are saying what our enemies are saying um what our adversaries are saying and what you know other , 47 secondsinterested parties are saying because they monitor they have meetings with people they monitor Communications and they file reports um they don’t have the they , 56 secondsdon’t have they don’t have the capabilities of the NSA or the NGA that’s why we have an NSA and an NGA they have their thing , 4 secondsthough and nobody was telling their diplomats that they were afraid the Iraqis could hit somebody and they were , 11 secondsthe only agency that had the guts to to point it out and as far as the aluminum tubes issue goes they stuck with doe on , 19 secondsthis INR is not persuaded that the tubes in question are intended for use as centrifuge rotors INR accepts the judgement of technical experts at the , 27 secondsdoe whove concluded that the tubes that Iraq seeks to acquire are poorly suited for use in gas centrifuges to be used , 35 secondsfor Uranium enrichment and finds unpersuasive the arguments Advanced by others to make the case that they are intended for that purpose they’re , 42 secondsprobably there for artillery oh okay makes sense , 49 secondsso confidence levels for selected key judgments in this this estimate bottom line nobody assessed Iraq could hit , 56 secondsAmerica even in the classified document nobody said so and they lied to us that they had said so they said oh no no no , 5 secondswe’ve seen incredible intelligence oh it’s really threatening we have to go right now guys can’t wait gotta go March , 12 seconds2003 high confidence means fire missile we’re ready that you don’t need to know anything else we are absolutely , 19 secondscertain but what were they certain of here it’s continuing and in some areas , 27 secondsexpanding its chemical biological nuclear and missile programs contrary to un resolutions okay are they doing it , 36 secondsgenerally though or are you know and is this expansion a threat they’re not saying that they’re just saying it’s expanding contrary to un resolutions , 46 secondsokay another high confidence estimate that means it’s the most sure they can be multiple agencies usually involved they know for certain Mr President fire , 54 secondsmissile we are not detecting portions of these weapons programs they assess with high confidence that they don’t know , 1 secondeverything that’s all of intelligence all of intelligence is that you don’t know everything you need to know and if , 9 secondsyou did you’d be wrong on on some of it you’d be interpreting it incorrectly all intelligence is wrong I’ve been doing it for almost 30 years every single , 18 secondsintelligence product is wrong the question is how is it wrong and is it useful did it help you understand something did you make a better decision , 25 secondsbecause of it that’s it all intelligence is incomplete there’s always something we don’t know about somebody’s weapons , 33 secondsprogram we don’t know how much how many Staples are left in the stapler on the guy’s desk so that is not an important statement but it’s interesting to see , 41 secondsthat they used it as part of the high high confidence interval statements to to make the , 49 secondsassessments Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles uhhuh since the 80s got it Iraq could make a nuclear weapon in months to a year once it has ham and Ry bread to make a sandwich got it moderate confidence Iraq does not yet have a , 7 secondsnuclear weapon or sufficient but is likely to have one by7 or9 if it gets the stuff that it doesn’t , 16 secondshave which we have no idea when they might get it that’s moderate confidence low confidence when he might use them when , 24 secondshe would engage in CEST yeah I guess we don’t know that’s not low confidence that’s no confidence they have no , 33 secondsidea they they they have admitted that they don’t have an idea really of what would motivate sdam Hussein which means , 40 secondsthey don’t have anybody near him they don’t have human Intelligence coming from the Hussein regime they didn’t have , 48 secondsany signals intelligence they were picking up which by the way I I don’t believe it’s too easy to get that kind of stuff but in any event , 57 secondsthey claim to have no insight into the man okay and they have low confidence but still willing to make a statement that he might share chemical and , 5 secondsbiological weapons with the people that wanted him dead first which you know I I don’t , 12 secondsbuy and it it just gets more embarrassing from there you , 19 secondsknow the assessment that intelligence information over the past 10 years makes clear Saddam has never abandoned his Pursuit of weapons of mass destruction , 27 secondsI’ve never abandoned my pursuit of washboard apps but I am not going to be in an underwear commercial anytime soon just , 34 secondssaying he has used chemical weapons against Iran yeah we helped him we paid him okay oh and even before the Gulf War , 42 secondsIraq concealed its weapons programs countries lie about classified programs that’s why they’re classified and there are other countries they’re going to , 50 secondstend to not tell you I understand that we invaded him we’re like hey here’s the deal of you continuing to have this country is you have to be honest with us , 57 secondsbet your your programs and that was reasonable the UN thought so I still think so today that was reasonable but he’s not telling us , 1 minute, 6 secondseverything that wasn’t enough to go to war on is the point Baghdad has exceeded un range limits of , 1 minute, 13 seconds150 150 kilom which 70 or so Miles yeah well Cleveland’s a long ways from Iraq so , 1 minute, 21 secondsyeah um Revelations after the Gulf War starkly demonstrate the extensive efforts to deny information well how come we couldn’t , 1 minute, 30 secondsget that information you know all in all what it says he couldn’t hit us and nobody thought he could and , 1 minute, 39 secondsthey lied to us that he could and that is , 1 minute, 49 secondsreally the rest of the document limited information and den and , 1 minute, 58 secondsdeception you know the state department they go back to them again INR believes that the indicators , 2 minutes, 6 secondswe have to be at best ambiguous and sees no compelling evidence the sort it would expect to , 2 minutes, 13 secondsdetect somebody’s always talking about something like that this is why when they went and started talking about going to Iraq I said I know people that , 2 minutes, 22 secondsmake threat assessments for the Pentagon I haven’t heard anybody talking about Iraq they’re basically taken care of , 2 minutes, 30 secondsAfghanistan we thought was a problem man when when they showed us those those jerks in Afghanistan I was like oh those , 2 minutes, 37 secondsguys we all knew who they were the Taliban were’re problems man they were left over from this the old Bin Laden , 2 minutes, 44 secondsdays the mujahadin they were a problem we didn’t clean that place up enough after after we won you know we won the , 2 minutes, 51 secondswar and failed the peace but nobody was talking about Iraq State Department said so as , 2 minutes, 59 secondswell yeah many key scientists evidently have been assigned to critical positions in non-nuclear defense sector State Department’s like dude the the only , 3 minutes, 8 secondspeople that the Iraqis had who would work on that stuff they don’t even work they don’t even work in the right building , 3 minutes, 14 secondsanymore and that is how we ended up in , 3 minutes, 23 secondsIraq bottom line here we’re very nervous we have no intelligence about this thing that we swear is happening we are concerned significant , 3 minutes, 31 secondsnuclear activities are escaping our detection that’s not an intelligence assessment that’s a hyperventilation that’s a sign you need better , 3 minutes, 39 secondsspies and how did this country that we invaded how were they that good at you , 3 minutes, 47 secondsknow fooling us like we had the UN in there all the time we didn’t recruit up any spies we didn’t have we didn’t have drun we , 3 minutes, 56 secondsdidn’t have satellites on them all this stuff that we didn’t know we we couldn’t we couldn’t monitor the money coming in and out of there really we couldn’t that , 4 minutes, 3 secondswas the story we were told that they god well we just we just don’t know we’re just not good enough at , 4 minutes, 10 secondsan Espionage we need to do Espionage with tanks and your cousin or you you , 4 minutes, 19 secondsknow the logic gets tortured we noted the absence of inspections would give a Rock a greater opportunity to conduct , 4 minutes, 27 secondscovert R&D yeah if you stop inspecting something I guess it’s covert you’re , 4 minutes, 34 secondsdoing it without anybody looking I mean so I’m was personally interested in , 4 minutes, 43 secondsthe procurement of aluminum tubes well what did he date aluminum tubes in high school and he has a thing for them like he’s got a thing for redheads or , 4 minutes, 50 secondssomething like that’s it folks if you wanted to see behind the curtain , 4 minutes, 57 secondsof how we ended up in IR Rock and dishonesty that we we never , 5 minutes, 5 secondsever fixed we never roed up to this is it
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