The Ayatollah Didn’t Bark: What’s NOT Happening In Iran Right Now
The most important thing happening in Iran right now is something that isn’t happening. No street protests defending the regime. No proxy counterattack.
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What a Comedy About Stalin Tells You About Iran Right Now
If you want to understand what’s happening inside Iran right now, don’t watch the news — watch a 2017 comedy called The Death of Stalin.
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Mirror Imaging: The CIA’s Warning About Predicting Iran
Right now, millions of smart people are trying to predict what Iran will do next. Most of them are making the same mistake — one the CIA identified decades…
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Availability Bias – A Cognitive Mind Trap to Avoid
Here’s how professional intelligence analysts keep away from the most dangerous logical fallacies – and why you should learn more about analytic tradecraft
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You Must Understand Cognitive Bias and AI
Many organizations are using, or looking for ways to use, AI in their operations. The assumption is that AI provides quality intellectual services that would take humans considerably more time and money to produce. Some…
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Social Cognitive Bias: Herd Instinct
Herd instinct is a legacy from our biological membership in the family of primates. We work better together in groups, and those groups need to show various kinds of cohesion in order to function. We learn early that we…
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What is a social cognitive bias?
From where we are sitting, intelligence is easy and cognitive bias is hard. When an analyst joins the profession, they might believe that 95% of the effort is in collecting and analyzing the intelligence itself–trying…
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Operation Iraqi Freedom, cognitive bias, and intelligence
In our training course How to Avoid Strategic Mind Traps, we examine the role of cognitive bias in distorting out view of the future. The course explores social biases, memory biases, decision-making biases, and…
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Why SWOT Analysis Sucks
This graphic depicts SWOT Analysis, a business strategy tool that invites executives to ponder their firm’s strategic position by considering their own inherent Strengths and Weaknesses. Then, considering whatever…
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Belief, Desire, and Cognitive Bias About the Future
The criminals facing imminent doom are willfully choosing to ignore their inevitable extinction. They don’t need to believe in the future for it to mangle them.
