The Ayatollah Didn’t Bark: What’s NOT Happening In Iran Right Now
The most important thing happening in Iran right now is something that isn’t happening. No street protests defending the regime. No proxy counterattack. No military response. No allies stepping in. The CIA’s own training manual warns analysts about exactly this blind spot — the failure to account for absence of evidence.
Sherlock Holmes solved his most famous case by noticing the dog didn’t bark. Richards Heuer built it into the CIA’s analytical framework. And right now, the silence from Iran is the loudest signal on the board.
This is the latest in a series applying cognitive bias frameworks from Heuer’s Psychology of Intelligence Analysis to the current situation in Iran.
Eric Garland is a career intelligence analyst, futurist, and keynote speaker. He was personally sanctioned by Vladimir Putin in 2022 for his work exposing Russian intelligence operations, and was named by the New York Times as having written one of the 25 most important tweets in history. He is the author of Future, Inc. (AMACOM, 2007) and How to Predict the Future…and WIN!
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