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Dems Are Losing Ground on Elections

Game Theory Today · Short · 2:34 · Published 2026-07-23 on YouTube

Three days ago, New Jersey admitted a software error had put 6,600 noncitizens on its voter rolls and that nearly 400 had voted. The governor called it a glitch, blamed the prior administration, and moved fast to get ahead of it. Then the story stopped cooperating. The software vendor, Idemia, went on the record to say it was not their glitch — that the data was correct, that every one of these people was recorded as “not a citizen,” and that it was always available to the state. The Justice Department put a five-day clock on New Jersey to hand over all 6,600 names and the 400 ballots — the exact data the state had fought in court to keep sealed. And DHS says the exposure may be far larger: a July 16 cross-match flagged 19,497 registrations matching noncitizen records on four points, and up to 35,152 potential matches still to be verified.

Then the tell that matters most: James Carville, the Democrats’ most veteran strategist, told his own party on his podcast to stop fighting voter ID — it polls at 75%, so quit fighting and move on. Read carefully and it’s not a surrender; he still calls noncitizen fraud infinitesimal and still won’t back Trump’s SAVE Act, which adds proof of citizenship on top of the ID. It’s a fighting retreat: give up the ground you can’t hold to defend the ground that matters. But step back and the board is clear — a forced admission, a vendor that won’t take the fall, and the other side’s sharpest strategist calling for a pullback. Three moves, 72 hours, one direction. Trump never needed to prove mass fraud; he needed the frame to move one concession at a time until “the rolls can’t be fully trusted” stops being a fight and becomes the assumption. Right now, the frame is moving.

Eric Garland is an intelligence analyst personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation in May 2022 for his work on Russian intelligence operations. He is the author of the 2016 “Game Theory” thread, named by The New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.

🔔 Subscribe for daily geopolitical intelligence analysis. 📝 Substack: ericgarland.substack.com 🎤 Book Eric to speak: Chartwell Speakers — https://www.chartwellspeakers.com/speaker/eric-garland/

SOURCES

New Jersey Monitor — “Governor: software error registered noncitizens to vote,” July 21, 2026 NOTUS — “Software Vendor Denies Responsibility for New Jersey Voter-Registration Error” (Idemia statement), July 22, 2026 Daily Caller — Idemia says the state had the data; DOJ / AAG Harmeet Dhillon five-business-day demand for the 6,600 registrants and the 400 ballots, July 2026 U.S. Department of Homeland Security — Sec. Markwayne Mullin, letter to the NJ Secretary of State, July 16, 2026 (19,497 four-point matches; up to 35,152 potential matches pending verification) Mediaite / Fox News — James Carville, “Politics War Room” podcast, July 23, 2026 (voter ID; still opposes the SAVE Act)

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