Cheap Gas Is Coming — Despite the War in the Strait of Hormuz
WTI crude settled below $70 a barrel in late June 2026 — the first time since February 27, the eve of the strikes that opened the war. Brent round-tripped from a late-April peak near $126 back to roughly $73. Even with a shooting war in the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil — U.S. pump prices are set to fall heading into the July 4 weekend.
The instinct says a Gulf war means $6 gas. That instinct is a decade out of date. Roughly 80% of the crude that transits Hormuz sails east to Asian buyers, not to the United States — which, since the shale boom, is the world’s largest oil producer and a net petroleum exporter. American pump prices track domestic WTI, not Gulf barrels. And a real shooting war destroys demand as fast as it threatens supply: recession fear cools the price even while the missiles are still flying. The question to watch — does a fresh Hormuz flare-up hold long enough to break the pattern before Labor Day?
Eric Garland is an intelligence analyst personally sanctioned by the Russian Federation in May 2022 for his work on Russian intelligence operations. He is the author of the 2016 “Game Theory” thread, named by The New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
🔔 Subscribe for daily geopolitical intelligence analysis.
📝 Substack: ericgarland.substack.com
🎤 Book Eric to speak: Leading Authorities — https://www.leadingauthorities.com/speakers/eric-garland
SOURCES
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Strait of Hormuz oil flows / World Oil Transit Chokepoints
U.S. Energy Information Administration — U.S. crude oil production & net petroleum trade status, 2020–2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration — Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2026
NYMEX — WTI front-month settlement below $70/bbl, late June 2026
ICE — Brent front-month, 27 Feb – 30 Jun 2026
