Trump gave Cuba an option. Diplomacy or the Marine Corps. We don’t care. Fuggedaboutit!
A senior State Department official told Axios: “President Trump is committed to pursuing a diplomatic solution, if possible, but will not let the island collapse into a major national security threat if Cuba’s leaders are unwilling or unable to act.”
Diplomatic solution — if possible. Will not let the island collapse — meaning we will intervene. Unwilling or unable — meaning we don’t care about the reason.
The U.S. just flew a government plane to Havana for the first time in a decade, sat down with Raúl Castro’s grandson, offered Starlink internet for the entire island, and told him it’s over. Meanwhile, Cuba has been hosting Russian and Chinese intelligence operations 90 miles from Florida for decades — and the Trump administration just informed Congress that Cuba helped supply Russia with up to 5,000 troops for Ukraine.
The regime will end peacefully or militarily. The question is how much cardio the Marine Corps gets out of the deal.
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Eric Garland is a career intelligence analyst sanctioned by Vladimir Putin in 2022 alongside three CIA directors. His 2016 Game Theory Thread was named by the New York Times as one of the 25 most important tweets in history.
Represented for speaking by Executive Speakers Bureau: https://executivespeakers.com/speaker/eric-garland
Substack: https://ericgarland.substack.com
TikTok: @gametheorytoday
SOURCES:
— U.S.-Cuba Havana meeting / Starlink offer: Axios, April 17, 2026
— Castro grandson secret letter: Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2026
— Cuba supplying Russia 5,000 troops: Axios; Responsible Statecraft, April 17, 2026
— Lourdes SIGINT facility: Federation of American Scientists; NBC News
— China Bejucal listening station: CSIS, December 2024
— Trump “diplomatic solution if possible”: Senior State Department official to Axios
