Herd instinct is a legacy from our biological membership in the family of primates. We work better together in groups, and those groups need to show various kinds of cohesion in order to function. We learn early that we…
From where we are sitting, intelligence is easy and cognitive bias is hard. When an analyst joins the profession, they might believe that 95% of the effort is in collecting and analyzing the intelligence itself–trying…
In our training course How to Avoid Strategic Mind Traps, we examine the role of cognitive bias in distorting out view of the future. The course explores social biases, memory biases, decision-making biases, and…
BRIEFING — Deep Dive: The Iraq War Intelligence Fraud An intelligence analyst walks the audience line by line through the 2002 National Intelligence…
BRIEFING — The End of Corporate Media The problem with the news is not that it is partisan. The problem with the news is that it is dumb — and it is…
BRIEFING — I Got Sanctioned By Russia
BRIEFING — Did the United States Fail Ukraine? For thirty-five years — since the moment the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 — the United States has had…
Political trends, unless you do business in an unstable environment such as Central Asia or South America, are frequently considered outside the purview of most business strategists. Moreover, when those strategists…
Intelligence analysis does not make the news very often. The audience is limited and the content will seem arcane at best. However, and unfortunately, the last ten years featured a very public use of so-called…
There is a wealth of reliable intelligence provided by a convenient, cheap service: Federal court documents. You do not need a bar license or even much training to get great intel from the PACER database, Public Access…