Bolsonaro’s Attempted Coup, Explained
BRIEFING — Bolsonaro’s Attempted Coup, Explained
Brazil’s outgoing president, Jair Bolsonaro, has led an attempted coup d’état against the rightful president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva — and he has done it, remarkably, while sitting in Florida as a guest of Governor Ron DeSantis. The events on the ground in Brasília look strikingly like the events of January 6, 2021 in Washington, D.C., and the resemblance is not coincidental. The same playbook, run by adjacent political networks, with the same offshore patrons cheering it on.
In this briefing, intelligence analyst Eric Garland walks through Bolsonaro’s record — the policy posture that has made him the favored candidate of both Moscow and Beijing, the operational links between the Brazilian and American attempted-overturn networks, and the structural reasons that the second large American hemisphere democracy is now facing the same kind of attack the first one faced two years ago.
This is not partisan commentary. It is a structured intelligence-analyst’s read of a documented coup attempt — drawn from the open-source record, the contemporaneous reporting from Brazil and the United States, and the working frameworks of intelligence professionals who have been tracking this transnational political infrastructure for years.
WHAT WE’LL COVER
– What actually happened in Brasília — the attempted coup against President Lula
– Why Bolsonaro is the favored candidate of both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously
– The structural parallels between January 6, 2021 in the United States and the events in Brazil
– The Florida-based safe harbor: why Bolsonaro fled to Ron DeSantis’s state, and what it means
– The transnational political infrastructure that connects the U.S. and Brazilian attempted overturns
– What the next phase looks like for both countries
ABOUT THE HOST
Eric Garland is a strategic intelligence analyst with three decades of experience briefing Fortune 500 boards, government agencies, and military planners. He is the founder of Competitive Futures and the host of Game Theory Today.
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Transcript
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huge news out of the capital of Brazil tonight ex-president jaive bolsonaro appears to have launched an attempted coup d’etat in Brasilia against the rightful president Lula da Silva Federal buildings have been invaded 400 arrested the security forces just like Washington D.C two years ago strangely absent from stopping the violence Joe Biden is behind Brazil getting its democracy back we’re going to tell you what you need to know guys it’s time for some Game Theory welcome back to Game Theory today my name is Eric Garland I’m an intelligence analyst and boy tonight we are working overtime we are watching history unfold tonight in the country of Brazil in the capital Brasilia there has been an attempted coup d’etat in almost exactly the same manner as the attempted coup d’etat of January 6 2021 in Washington D.C October 30th 2022 there was a presidential election against the sitting president jair bolsonaro an ultra right-wing ideological companion of Donald Trump held many of the same ideologies but with a much longer history of uh military dictatorship under his belt he was running off against Lula de Silva former president of Brazil extremely well known to the Brazilian people October 30th 2022 Lula Beats jail bolsonaro bolsonaro cries foul much in the same way as Donald Trump has no evidence that there was an unfair election claims it to his supporters anyhow what’s very special though December 30th 2022 bolsonaro leaves Brazil for Orlando Florida now bolsonaro has met with Trump before apparently he hasn’t yet so far but he’s sitting in Ron desantis’s State and is running an attempted coup d’etat from Florida folks uh so January 1st 2023 Lula da Silva is inaugurated some six days later bolsonaro supporters storm the Congress or the federal deputies building the Supreme Court and the presidential Palace all of which have been ransacked and damaged in a way even more serious than the attacks of January 6 2021 the Congress building according to current reports this is a fast-moving situation right now but apparently not only has been ransacked it has been flooded they apparently turned the sprinkler systems on the Supreme Court building also invaded the presidential Palace first surrounded then invaded now also ransacked president Lula de Silva has called for emergency powers to regain control over the country’s Democratic institutions and President Joe Biden has promised full support of his duly elected Democratic presidential Administration so for those of you out there who don’t follow Brazilian politics a lot and since I’m speaking English and not Portuguese that’s probably almost all of you let’s get these figures down so you know who you’re dealing with the current president Lula da Silva is extremely well known to the Brazilian people Lula a lot of uh like like soccer players politicians are often known by one name in Brazil Lula was a trade unionist in the 70s and 80s under the military Junta of Joel figueredo he ran for political office in the federal level starting in 1987.
these were some of the first elections that Brazil had following the military Kunta de Silva represented the city of Sao Paulo starting in 1980 seven he was a leftist politician he emerged as president in 2003 through 2010 he was then caught up in a series of corruption scandals along with his colleague in labor politics Dilma Rousseff Da Silva served around 500 Days in prison of a nine-year sentence he emerged out of prison he ran again in 2022 against bolsonaro he won on October 30th and now he is dependent on American Support to get the Democratic institutions of his country back under control as jair bolsonaro and his allies are attacking the very fabric of Brazilian democracy now we know Lula de Silva was a trade unionist coming from the left representing Sao Paulo politically comes from the military perspective he represents Rio de Janeiro from the right wing uh he rose up during the military Junta during the 1970s he left High School in 73 went right in the military academy he graduated in 77 where he became an artillery officer and a paratrooper uh his military career came to an end in the mid 80s with a court-martial he was accused of a domestic Terror plot possibly even bombing military bases within the country he was acquitted of that and then went into politics first as a city councilman for Rio de Janeiro and then a 1991 going in to Brasilia as a federal Deputy representing Rio de Janeiro 1991 through 2018 he was in that role he did things such as during the impeachment vote for president Dilma Rousseff he dedicated his vote to the guy who ran the torture chamber during the military Junta so uh yeah he he shares a lot in common with Trump but he frankly sells it a lot better than Trump and I think he means it more than Trump uh nevertheless what’s most important about jail bolsonaro is that he is a big favorite of Moscow and Beijing and how do you know someone’s a favorite of Beijing they let Huawei in the door so long after uh many many North American and European countries have been getting ZTE hick vision and Huawei out of their infrastructures bolsonaro has still been letting China in and that’s a big deal in a country that has so many Commodities that China has needed China wasn’t even in the top five of Brazil’s trading partners prior to 2009 ever since then ever since Obama got in they have been just rushing into South America and they’ve taken the lead trade position in Brazil as they have in Chile and Uruguay and Paraguay so this is an important geopolitical move and for bolsonaro to come out isn’t just a loss for the right wing in Brazil it’s a loss for Xi Jinping I’d say it’s a loss for Vladimir Putin as well but Putin’s on his way out anyhow Russia doesn’t have much influence left its money has been cut off China has a lot of problems right now but it still is very influential the world over this is a major loss not just for the right wing in Brazil not just for the right-wing ideology globally which is being thankfully pushed back but it’s a huge loss for Beijing our are we going to find out that this attack by bolsonaro supporters were funded if these attacks were funded by Beijing just like we’ve discovered that America’s were and who else supported this have we got any Saudi interference here one of the big things that we hope to learn from prosecutor Jack Smith’s grand juries which are open now which Trump’s attorneys have been in apparently at the Appellate Court trying to fight something from coming out Kyle Chaney from Politico has done a great job reading the Tea Leaves of those appellate dockets there and it looks like Jack Smith’s grand juries are ready to strike we might learn a lot about who was behind the attacks of January 6th domestic actors we might even learn about foreign actors and right now we have unfortunately a second active comparator here in Brasilia we know Beijing has got a lot to lose with Lula coming in being much more friendly to the United States and its points of view and has a lot to lose if bolsonaro goes out who’s in Florida tonight of all places so uh we’re going to be monitoring this here at Game Theory headquarters uh please hit subscribe there’s going to be more here uh click like please and uh you probably have a lot of questions man ask him I love answering the stuff and man get into some deep questions here because uh this Brazilian politics stuff is not easy and I love to learn so ask me some questions us intelligence analysts are going to be up all night there’s going to be more tomorrow this is eight Eric Garland game three today peace huge news out of the capital of Brazil tonight ex-president jaive bolsonaro appears to have launched an attempted coup d’etat in Brasilia against the rightful president Lula da Silva Federal buildings have been invaded 400 arrested the security forces just like Washington D.C two years ago strangely absent from stopping the violence Joe Biden is behind Brazil getting its democracy back we’re going to tell you what you need to know guys it’s time for some Game Theory welcome back to Game Theory today my name is Eric Garland I’m an intelligence analyst and boy tonight we are working overtime we are watching history unfold tonight in the country of Brazil in the capital Brasilia there has been an attempted coup d’etat in almost exactly the same manner as the attempted coup d’etat of January 6 2021 in Washington D.C October 30th 2022 there was a presidential election against the sitting president jair bolsonaro an ultra right-wing ideological companion of Donald Trump held many of the same ideologies but with a much longer history of uh military dictatorship under his belt he was running off against Lula de Silva former president of Brazil extremely well known to the Brazilian people October 30th 2022 Lula Beats jail bolsonaro bolsonaro cries foul much in the same way as Donald Trump has no evidence that there was an unfair election claims it to his supporters anyhow what’s very special though December 30th 2022 bolsonaro leaves Brazil for Orlando Florida now bolsonaro has met with Trump before apparently he hasn’t yet so far but he’s sitting in Ron desantis’s State and is running an attempted coup d’etat from Florida folks uh so January 1st 2023 Lula da Silva is inaugurated some six days later bolsonaro supporters storm the Congress or the federal deputies building the Supreme Court and the presidential Palace all of which have been ransacked and damaged in a way even more serious than the attacks of January 6 2021 the Congress building according to current reports this is a fast-moving situation right now but apparently not only has been ransacked it has been flooded they apparently turned the sprinkler systems on the Supreme Court building also invaded the presidential Palace first surrounded then invaded now also ransacked president Lula de Silva has called for emergency powers to regain control over the country’s Democratic institutions and President Joe Biden has promised full support of his duly elected Democratic presidential Administration so for those of you out there who don’t follow Brazilian politics a lot and since I’m speaking English and not Portuguese that’s probably almost all of you let’s get these figures down so you know who you’re dealing with the current president Lula da Silva is extremely well known to the Brazilian people Lula a lot of uh like like soccer players politicians are often known by one name in Brazil Lula was a trade unionist in the 70s and 80s under the military Junta of Joel figueredo he ran for political office in the federal level starting in 1987.
these were some of the first elections that Brazil had following the military Kunta de Silva represented the city of Sao Paulo starting in 1980 seven he was a leftist politician he emerged as president in 2003 through 2010 he was then caught up in a series of corruption scandals along with his colleague in labor politics Dilma Rousseff Da Silva served around 500 Days in prison of a nine-year sentence he emerged out of prison he ran again in 2022 against bolsonaro he won on October 30th and now he is dependent on American Support to get the Democratic institutions of his country back under control as jair bolsonaro and his allies are attacking the very fabric of Brazilian democracy now we know Lula de Silva was a trade unionist coming from the left representing Sao Paulo politically comes from the military perspective he represents Rio de Janeiro from the right wing uh he rose up during the military Junta during the 1970s he left High School in 73 went right in the military academy he graduated in 77 where he became an artillery officer and a paratrooper uh his military career came to an end in the mid 80s with a court-martial he was accused of a domestic Terror plot possibly even bombing military bases within the country he was acquitted of that and then went into politics first as a city councilman for Rio de Janeiro and then a 1991 going in to Brasilia as a federal Deputy representing Rio de Janeiro 1991 through 2018 he was in that role he did things such as during the impeachment vote for president Dilma Rousseff he dedicated his vote to the guy who ran the torture chamber during the military Junta so uh yeah he he shares a lot in common with Trump but he frankly sells it a lot better than Trump and I think he means it more than Trump uh nevertheless what’s most important about jail bolsonaro is that he is a big favorite of Moscow and Beijing and how do you know someone’s a favorite of Beijing they let Huawei in the door so long after uh many many North American and European countries have been getting ZTE hick vision and Huawei out of their infrastructures bolsonaro has still been letting China in and that’s a big deal in a country that has so many Commodities that China has needed China wasn’t even in the top five of Brazil’s trading partners prior to 2009 ever since then ever since Obama got in they have been just rushing into South America and they’ve taken the lead trade position in Brazil as they have in Chile and Uruguay and Paraguay so this is an important geopolitical move and for bolsonaro to come out isn’t just a loss for the right wing in Brazil it’s a loss for Xi Jinping I’d say it’s a loss for Vladimir Putin as well but Putin’s on his way out anyhow Russia doesn’t have much influence left its money has been cut off China has a lot of problems right now but it still is very influential the world over this is a major loss not just for the right wing in Brazil not just for the right-wing ideology globally which is being thankfully pushed back but it’s a huge loss for Beijing our are we going to find out that this attack by bolsonaro supporters were funded if these attacks were funded by Beijing just like we’ve discovered that America’s were and who else supported this have we got any Saudi interference here one of the big things that we hope to learn from prosecutor Jack Smith’s grand juries which are open now which Trump’s attorneys have been in apparently at the Appellate Court trying to fight something from coming out Kyle Chaney from Politico has done a great job reading the Tea Leaves of those appellate dockets there and it looks like Jack Smith’s grand juries are ready to strike we might learn a lot about who was behind the attacks of January 6th domestic actors we might even learn about foreign actors and right now we have unfortunately a second active comparator here in Brasilia we know Beijing has got a lot to lose with Lula coming in being much more friendly to the United States and its points of view and has a lot to lose if bolsonaro goes out who’s in Florida tonight of all places so uh we’re going to be monitoring this here at Game Theory headquarters uh please hit subscribe there’s going to be more here uh click like please and uh you probably have a lot of questions man ask him I love answering the stuff and man get into some deep questions here because uh this Brazilian politics stuff is not easy and I love to learn so ask me some questions us intelligence analysts are going to be up all night there’s going to be more tomorrow this is eight Eric Garland game three today peace
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