Forecasts for the end of the car in the United States have their basis in trends of total vehicle miles traveled, which seemed to peak around 2007 and which failed to recover with “The Recovery.”
Right along with the plummeting price of oil, total miles have been increasing, as shown in this chart from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration.
More curious still are the trends in light vehicle sales, which don’t track precisely to this trend, or the cost of gasoline.
This is why advanced analysis is required in these matters.