How Brexit shook up Euro currencies – or didn’t

Eric Garland DataLab

With even the brains behind Brexit describe the current state of the project as a complete mess, it's a good time to look at how currency markets have reacted to British and *ahem* European currencies.

British Pound (GBP) vs. US Dollar (USD)

It's pretty clear that the Brexit vote definitively changed the relationship between the Pound Sterling and the US Dollar.

The dollar is a critical comparator if for no other reason than petroleum is still denominated in USD. For British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell - not to mention pharma companies - this is no mere detail.

Note the drop off in GBP value right near the Brexit vote of June 23, 2016. Given the inability of the UK government to explain how this transition might work - much less its implications - the failure of the market to return to confidence is rational.

Brexit effect GBP USD

United States Dollar (USD) vs. Euro (EUR)

It's not clear why the Euro didn't respond to events that will surely be tectonic to European trade. Perhaps currency traders never thought Brexit could happen in the first place? It would be hard to ask all of them, plus the algorithms.
Brexit USD EUR trade

United States Dollar (USD) vs. Swiss Franc (CHF)

Sure, Switzerland is neutral in all things, but like the UK, it's a center of world banking. Surely a place with so many financial instruments denominated in its national currency, the shift in the British Pound due to Brexit would have some disruptive effect.

That's not what the chart shows.

Brexit USD CHF five year chart
What future for Brexit?

Our theory at Competitive Futures: Somewhere between a complete lack of plan for leaving the European Union, the commercial and legal chaos promised by any potential achievement of the initiative, the falling public support for the referendum, and the dubious connections to PsyOp contractor Cambridge Analytica, we strongly suspect that Brexit will never come to fruition.

This would be a stabilizing factor for world markets.