Forecast assessment
Having trained thousands of executives in the art of foresight, we know that now, more than ever, we need a clear view of the events coming in weeks, months and year, or we risk making decisions on faulty assumptions. What passes for business media is scarcely a help in this area. If you listen uncritically to the forecasts offered up in most channels, you have to base your view of the future on:
- Sunny economic forecasts based on stock speculation instead of shrinking incomes and unemployment
- Chairmen of the Federal Reserve forecasting the rise housing prices just before the detonation of the entire economy under the weight of fake mortage-backed securities
- The US Government predicting world oil supply as stable or steadily growing while key oil fields go extinct and China and India put millions of cars on the road
- Healthcare debates that appear to ignore the impact of the Boomer retirement, shifts in employment contracts
If you are a professional analyst, we want you to be able to:
- Know good forecasts from bad
- Identify who can you trust in a world without defined authority figures
- Make critical decisions based on the best information
Our short course entitled Real Forecasting for Professional Analysts is perfect for busy analysts and managers who want a professional-level refresher course in the evaluation of forecasts. Our course will show you how to:
- Find the right sources
- Identify what type of forecast is on offer
- Explore the assumptions of the author
- Pick out the trends used to make the forecast
- Identify implications of the forecast
- Assess the probability of the future described
- Communicate this infomation to other people
At the end of the day, we want our clients to be ready to evaluate forecasts, understand who is writing them, ascertain their assumptions and know what it all means so they can better plan for the future.