Competitive Futures: Case studies of future intelligence

Competitive Futures has a decade of experience helping organizations move to the next level of sophistication in their understand of the world and their strategic options in it. Here are some of our favorite stories of successful collaborations with our wonderful clients.

Case study: 20-year technology forecast for the board of directors

Competitive Futures was selected out of a dozen other vendors offering services in foresight to assist a multinational consumer goods company prepare a report for its Board of Directors on the next twenty years of technology and its impact on the company's competitive strategy. CompFutures was selected because of its background in technology foresight and its expertise in preparing custom studies for top management - and because many of the other vendors supposedly in the field of "futures studies" were unable to do more than just give keynote speeches or syndicated reports.

The client's corporate foresight team was selected to inform its board of directors about the technologies on the horizon for the next twenty years, and how these developments would impact the firm's competition. Furthermore, the team was limited to spending no more than 10% of its time on the project; all of their other job duties were still very much active. They turned a significant amount of the project over to us.

Competitive Futures put together a tailor-made program that included:

  • Training in our future intelligence methodology
  • Patent analysis to scan for where competitors were investing for the long-term
  • Socio-economic trend research to produce profiles of the customer of 2025
  • Wildcard scenario analysis to identify potential discontinuities for their strategy in the long-term

Results:

The study was presented successfully to the CEO and Board of Directors, who were impressed that the work not only showed disruptive technology on the horizon, but more importantly showed a larger future of non-linear change.

They became aware that many factors could destabilize their strategy in the longer term - prompting them to make new investments for the future.

Moreover, the corporate foresight team was commended on a strong project achieved with relative few resources.

Case study: Planning the future of a nation

Competitive Futures was engaged when the prime minister of a country wanted to produce a landmark study charting the course for several potential futures for the nation over the next twenty years. All branches of the government would be consulted, but the prime minister required that only the best, most rigorous and tested methodology be used to provide insights to the nation's leaders.

Desgined with both business and government challenges in mind, the Future Intelligence methodology offered rigor, transparency, and useable insights.

We provided the following services over the course of a year:

  • Systems mapping to identify all factors inside and outside of the country
  • Megatrend reports about the larger changes in society, industry and economics around the world
  • Analysis of economic development activities in nearby countries
  • Identification of likely industries willing to enter into public-private partnerships
  • Guidance about best-practices in writing and reporting

Results:

The national government produced a report on its next twenty years that garnered major attention from domestic and foreign press, avoiding many political pitfalls and uniting many of the country's various business interests.

Its economic development plans have gone on to attract investment from around the country and is providing a sense of direction for its people as to the future of their homeland.

Case study: Avoiding pitfalls from what looked like a billion-dollar opportunity

Sometimes, foresight is about the risks you avoid as much as the profitable opportunities you exploit.

Competitive Futures was asked to evaluate a potential business plan for a multi-billion dollar tech company that was seeing climate change as a driver of opportunity for some of their products and services. The company was getting ready to make a significant investment in information technology solutions to monitoring requirements from upcoming climate change legislation. Before jumping in with both feet, the company wanted to assess the long-term, to make sure their assumptions were correct.

We provided the following services:

  • Careful analysis of proposed legislation, including primary interviews with key government officials and thought leaders
  • Detailed research on competitors to see if similar companies would be joining them in the future market space
  • Analysis of global intellectual property databases to detect potential competitors
  • Interviews on needs assessment with potential customers

Results:

The cacophony of media attention on global climate change made it look like billions of dollars would be changing hands over brand new services. However, the real story was that proposed legislation was utterly confusing, and customers were far from requiring the services to help them manage the proposed governmental obligations.

Competitive Futures helped our client avoid further losses in the proposed market space and instead recommended where the real action was - before their competitors could arrive on the scene.