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What’s Out 2008/ What’s In 2009
Folks, we’re in the forecasting business, so we get to have a bit of an early say on what will go down next year. Let’s check back in June and see what really happened.
What’s Out 2008 / What’s In 2009
Out: Authority / In: Community
Out: $4 gasoline / In: $4 houses
Out: Mergers & Acquisitions / In: Hunting & Gathering
Out: Control / In: Imagination
Out: Profit / In: Survival
Out: Credit derivative swaps, financed as a 20-year zero coupon bond by the Royal Bank of the St. Lucia Protectorate, tranched and repackaged as a structured-investment-grade device for Swedish pensions / In: Cash
Out: Hail-Mary Passes / In: Slow, committed strategies
Out: Million dollar CEO bonuses / In: Million dollar CEO bonuses (Huh? Really? Wow. OK.)
Out: Editorials from the New York Times / In: Some dude’s Twitter feed
Out: Copyright protection, lawsuits / In: Pay-what-you-want, guilt
Out: Mass customization / In: Knowing your customers by name
Out: Green business as a PR move / In: Green business because you haven’t got the budget to waste on low-mileage vehicles, inefficient buildings, polluting processes
Out: Size / In: Agility
Out: Speculation / In: Investment
Out: Eye-popping government deficits / In: Not even opening your eyes, for fear of reading about the actual deficit
Out: $30,000 Toyota Prius status symbols / In: Fixing your Toyota Corolla and getting 38 mpg anyway
Out: Dinner at casual restaurants / In: Crockpots, stews, roast chickens that last for three soups and nineteen sandwiches
Merry Christmas to all.
Deep thought
I’ll bet the governor of Illinois is probably interested in Big Brother Technologies at this moment.
Which media will win?
Fact of the day: There are three times as many mobile phones as televisions on Earth.
We are witnessing the business model meltdown of all the one-way mass media: print, radio, video (TV and soon film) …but mobile technologies and social networks are just starting to grow.
Who is the long term winner here? Who serves their customers the best?
Here a hint: yesterday at the gym I was on the cardio machine for 45 minutes. I was watching a certain television network owned by a giant media company.
The first twenty minutes of the broadcast were dedicated to the criminal complaint against the Governor of Illinois.
The following twenty-FIVE minutes were dedicated to covering the impact of comedian Jay Leno moving from 11:00pm to the 10pm weekly slot.
Which target demographic cares more about an in-depth analysis of Jay Leno’s contract negotiations than topics of national importance? And how much money is that demographic worth?
The answer will help shape the future of the media business.
“Carbon assets:” global banks still addicted to speculative markets
The McKinsey Quarterly trumpets that “a new regulatory environment for greenhouse gas emissions could hold good news for banks.” They bandy about figures such as “trading volume could grow to €2 trillion by 2020!” Banks such as Barclays and Merrill Lynch will be investing in carbon credits, which apparently will grow in value over time, which is why they would be worth the speculative risk.
Quick question: When did carbon become an asset? I thought it was a pollutant that was melting our ice caps and destabilizing our climate?
Ah, carbon isn’t the asset, it’s the right to emit carbon which will be decided by national governments in the U.K., Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Canada. The banks will invest in the right to emit pollution, which is…um…I guess an asset. If you squint.
Much of our recent economic trouble is that we imagined that we were creating value through a housing bubble and an unregulated credit glut. This approach was so wrong that most of our financial system has collapsed. But the way out is through investing in carbon “assets” that are entirely encased in an artificial market that will be run by the same federal governments now trying to run banks, insurance companies, car manufacturers and other industries?
Who can explain to me how carbon can be an “asset” with a value that will appreciate?
Better question: what real good or service will you be providing to people in 2009? There will be billions of people who want things, need help, require something of real value.
Will you be aiming to provide that, or will you be betting on assets created out of thin air?
Canadian having miniature camera installed in his eyesocket
Canadian filmmaker Rob Spence is evidently working toward having his prostetic eye replaced with a 
wireless functioning video camera that will capture every waking moment of his field of vision.
What’s more interesting is the fact that he appears to be doing so not only out of curiosity, but also to point out the degree to which we are all being filmed, everyday.
Awareness of Big Brother Technologies is growing daily.
The future of natural resources: aluminum prices plummet
At this moment , you can really see the effect of speculative markets on our economy the past few years . Gasoline in Washington is now cheaper than my morning coffee - around $1.70 at the time of this post. This shows how incredibly powerful speculation has been. The world economy has not been cut in half, but many resources are falling dramatically in price.
Today, the global cash price for aluminum also fell to around half of what it was earlier this year. It may seem crazy, but then again, there are THOUSANDS OF YEARS left of aluminum in the Earth’s crust.
The future of scarcity is not what many have been led to believe! More below:
Latest STEEP Report: the future of Big Brother Technologies
Our most recent STEEP Report was just published this week on the future of surveillance technologies - RFID, GPS, facial recognition, biometrics and more.
Our bottom line: these technologies will give business and government tremendous new capabilities and significant new liabilities. We need a dialogue sooner rather than later (even with everything going on today!)
Jeff Jarvis on the Future of News: Community-based, and ad driven
It was really refreshing to read Jeff Jarvis‘ cogent, detailed potential scenario on the future of news in the Huffington Post today. It’s amazing to see a courageous view of somebody’s industry, offered up with few difficult topics avoided out of taboo and a spirit of intellectual inquiry.
Bottom line of this scenario: less editing, more cultivating of communities, and ad money still pays for reporters. Much more on the specifics of funding newsrooms and the future of running a local beat, which makes it a real treat.
This piece is truly insightful, and apparently controversial to the journalistic community, which makes it a must read.
U.S. children developing more kidney stones
Another case of adult health problems in young children. Blamed on obesity, poor diet, and insufficient 
hydration, evidently American children are developing kidney stones. Hospitals are even developing pediatric kidney stone units.
Little Tessa here, age 11, has “cut back on salt and is drinking more water.”
What’s next? Are we going to hear about fourth-graders trying to scale back on the whisky and poker nights?
Also, kindergartens may outlaw the “kegstand.”
Now you understand why this generation of children in America will be the first to have a life expectancy shorter than their parents.
Be social