The trouble with openness
Anyone in a romantic relationship, and certainly in a marriage, knows that the way to peace is not to be open about everything at every moment. Many thoughts, beliefs and should be kept one’s self, in the interest of peace. Did it just occur to you that tonights pot roast tastes much like the styrofoam packaging it came on? What do you really think of that new dress? As my old colleague Jim Burke would say "You are missing the perfect opportunity to say nothing." As somebody who rarely says nothing, I find this advice to be quite sage. Hard to follow, but sage.
But pharma companies, they have an entirely different problem with openness. Following the
back-to-back ethical scandals of Paxil (withholding data on efficacy in children) and Vioxx (encouraging sales reps to "dodge" direct questions from doctors about damage to the heart), the pharmaceutical industry began edging toward opening up their trial database to the public.
A couple years back, I did a project looking at potential scenarios around what openness could look like, good and bad, and discussed these possibilities in a presentation at a pharmaceutical intelligence conference and an article in the Futurist. (Note: At the conference, there were some who looked at me like I had four heads for suggesting that the government’s requirement for openness would have implications for their business…as if it were a future so bad it were taboo.)
So greater openness is in effect, and it’s already having some real impact. On one hand, Novartis has started to open its trial databases up to the world, trying to use the networked economy effect to drive drug discovery. Cool.
But being open to the world can have drawbacks. The New York Times today ran an article about how GSK’s diabetes drug Avandia was shown to have cardiovascular risks. A doctor at the Cleveland Clinic was able to open up the trial database, do a meta-analysis on the data, and concluded definitively that there is a greater cardiac risk with the drug. Before, only the drug company would have access to those data, and heaven knows they have no such incentive to roll hand grenades onto their share price by coming forth with such analyses.
By the way, you know how many billions of dollars of revenue just got iced because of this? OUCH.
So what might openness mean to you and your organization?
-Garland
On tipping points
Markets are pretty efficient things. For a while, I’ve been wondering what everybody in the condo market
was thinking, doubling the supply every year while also doubling the price. I mean, $700,000 for some granite countertops in a neighborhood you wouldn’t have parked in five years ago?
"The Bad News on Condos: Market Beset By Declining Sales, Foreclosures"
Ah, equilibrium.
Incidentally, I’m very interested by the new book "Pop!: Why Bubbles are Great for the Economy" by Daniel Gross. So many people have been expressing chagrin about the correction that will undoubtedly visit real estate (I mean, 38% increases in value every year?) but I think it’s about the same as getting upset that your blood pressure is going down to normal.
The key is balance. Because points tip, and markets are pretty efficient.
The Paradox of Wealth and Poverty
I play latin music (salsa, merengue, etc.) here in Washington DC, which means I know lots of people from Latin America. (It’s their music and all.) Several of my associates have been in this country waiting for full residency, which means that they can’t come and go freely - sometimes for years.
My good friend and monstrously awesome salsa singer Verny Varela got his full papers a little while ago and finally got to return to Cali, Colombia, where he’s from. Aside from seeing his family, I asked him how Colombia was doing. 
"Gringo, man, it’s poorer than when I left eight years ago."
So it’s horrible?
"No, actually life there is probably still better than here. We have real fruit down there. And you have time to see your friends. People don’t work themselves to death. My father drives a 1979 Renault, and the economy has only been good to the rich…but life is still somehow better."
I wondered if this was just the result of missing your home, so I asked a bunch of my other friends who have recently been back to El Salvador, Peru, Honduras, etc. The trend was pretty strong - people think there is definitely more money in America, but life is all about two incomes, sitting in traffic, $500,000 starter homes, and processed bland food.
Look, I travel regularly, and I’m not one of these squishy internationalists who craps all over America and loves anything "authentic." I like clean water, clean bathrooms, no dysentery, no malaria, etc. - I’m a pretty First World kinda cat.
But I remember being in Turks and Caicos on a small island last year. And the people were super dirt poor. And yet I didn’t sense they envied us our Blackberries, stress headaches, and three hour roundtrip commutes.
I’m just thinking, if immigrants come here and don’t think that the U.S.A. is the land of Milk & Honey, then what awaits us as a nation?
Is there something more to life than being the World’s Number One Economy?
Just a thought.
-Garland
Special Double Blogpost Day: More Musicians Leave the Old System
This is so cool, I gotta post in rapid succession.
Those who know me, know how much I adore playing music. This is why the music industry is one of my
favorite example of changing business models, and sometimes I think getting paid to play your guitar is an enormous scam.
However, the way record contracts are often written, it can be literally a scam.
Imagine, if you will, a mortgage by which you take out the loan, pay it back with your earnings, and then the record company still owns the house. You’d never do it, right? Well, that’s the structure of many record deals. They advance you money, which you then spend on making the record, which you must pay back. Then the record company owns the product you took out a loan to produce.
You follow that? Yes, it’s weird.
One of my all-time favorite musicians went through the meat grinder, earning millions of pounds for Virgin Records, and then somehow ending up broke. Andy Partridge is the frontman for British pop geniuses XTC, and he has been through the ringer. Ultimately, the group had to go on strike (not unlike Prince during his ’symbol’ phase) to get out of a bad deal signed in their 20s.
Anyhow, Andy is finally leverage the Internet to start a record label that cuts musicians fair deals- deals that allow high quality music to reach the masses without being pushed through the lowest-common-denominator cookie cutter.
This, my friends, is a positive future - one where thousands of musicians make thousands of dollars, instead of a few making tens of millions. I’m sorry, but there is more artistic quality in diversity than there is in mass marketing.
Very cool.
Interesting Social Trend: Lower Divorce Rate?
There’s so much going on in technology, I find it useful to keep a keen eye on social trends, so this one
caught my eye:
Sure, between 1981 and 1995, it seemed like EVERYBODY was doing it, but according to the Associated Press, divorce rates have dropped to 1970 levels.
What’s the reason? Well, some people are staying married through thick and thin, but the rate of cohabitation ("shackin’ up") has also increased. I guess one way to avoid divorce is never to get married.
Does this that the blended family is likely to be around in the future, or are we returning to more "traditional" structures?
Global Climate Change: Insurance gets in on the act
No, I don’t like to write about climate change ALL the time, but it seems an important issue, so here’s more food for thought.
The effect of carbon dioxide on the atmosphere has been a subject of discussion for years, but I really pay attention once it’s being dealt with by industries that seemingly have nothing to do with it. Do oil companies have a stake in the game? Of course. But what about insurance and finance?
Check out this well-researched paper from the Insurance Information Institute about the impact global climate change will have on the entire industry of risk management. It seems that the industry doesn’t just view climate change as another risk factor - it’s an issue that could change the very nature of actuarial tables and assessing uncertainty. A total game changer.
-Garland
Modern obesity media.
"Shrek on Forced to go on diet for McDonald’s Happy Meal Gig"
Apparently, the company is pushing its new "apple slices" market strategy.
I don’t think I can produce any other comment on this.
Be social