Permanent shift of climate expectations?
This week in the United States has been pretty freaky for weather. Snow and wind in Iowa, lashing cold
rain back in DC, and the first days of baseball seeming pretty out of place.
Assuming that this particular spate of strange weather is due to climate change, I have a specific question — will our expectations be forever altered?
We - and all of nature - expect certain ranges of weather at certain times. We think it should be warmer in the spring and then progressing steadily to summer. All flora and fauna thrive in certain places based on these expectations.
What if those are no longer operative…for the foreseeable future? The really serious forecasts on climate change aren’t even for this decade but for 2040 - 2100.
What if animals (humans and other) can never really rely on past expectations again. What of our picnics? Our ski vacations?
Did we put our summer homes in the right place?
Does Vermont actually become a livable climate?
Where will cities spring up?
Who will win? Who will lose?
Nanotechnology closer that we think!!! Or maybe not
On a snowy (?!) April morning here in DC, a quick post on my favorite old subject, nanotechnology.
Christine Peterson of the Foresight Institute has a great post about how University of Maryland researchers are claiming that "nanofactories are not that far away!" Evidently, "before long" you may not need to go to the doctor, because nanobots will be implanted in your internal organs (painlessly, mind you) and will produce pharmaceuticals on-demand from readily available molecules. Sounds great, doesn’t it!
Not so fast. This is certainly the dream of nanomedicine, but Peterson, likely the world’s most experienced analyst of these issues, is skeptical. She points out that people will start calling t
heir work "nanofactories" even if they don’t meet the actual definition of nanofactories (which will be much harder to attain.)
In short, it’s great to see nanotech innovation go forward. As long as Michael Crichton doesn’t write any more books on the subject.
Want some advice? Hug a 30 year old today
Just finished presenting and talking at the Excellence in Government conference here in Washington DC. The topic was, well, making government more excellent. For you members of Generation X, please insert your Bill and Ted comment here.
Regardless, here’s a quick dispatch - the number one theme at the conference. Terrorism? Not by a long shot. Pay for performance? Yes, but not the hottest theme. The number one urgent topic is the UPCOMING TALENT WARS.
Essentially, most of the government is looking around and realizing that they have lots of 50+ workers, and a bunch of 22 - 27 year old new employees, but very little in between. Plus, many of these organizations claim that they have been remiss in mentoring, creating career ladders, and succession plans. In other words, lots of experienced brains are retiring, and the federal government is realizing that they are going to be competing with the WHOLE WORLD in every industry for capable, talented younger brains. 
So want some advice? Hug a 30 year old. Start mentoring young people TODAY. Give them a reason to care about your organization. Give them a clear idea of the path up. And start giving them greater responsibility.
In four years, you’ll thank me.
-Garland
Do not confuse fads for strategic trends
I’m back from Paris, where I ate four times my body weight in pure-butter pastry and incidentally gave a talk to Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals - France at the lovely Hotel Ambassador
. It is experiences like this that keep me from really thinking that what I do is work.
Also, I also had the chance to meet with publishers regarding a French version of Future Inc. More on that when it’s out of the negotiation phase.
So back to the blog. I am no sooner back from Europe when I see a statement that really irritates me. I recently read about a business trend consultant who is announcing to his audience:
"Aging Populations" is no longer the "hot" trend. Today, "CLIMATE" is has replaced aging as the most important trend of the moment.
To be crude, this is one of the dumber things I have read in some time. I get asked quite a bit in interviews, "How can people distinguish between a fad and a trend?" I say that true strategic trends take a long time to develop, won’t disappear overnight, and have many levels of implications for our institutions. 
Fads come and go quickly, really just a function of personal taste and media exposure. For example, for some unknown reason, Ugg Boots are popular among college girls. Tomorrow, God willing, they will realize that the Cro-Magnon look is out, and there you have it - the demise of a fad.
Now, when we apply this fad mindset to strategic trends, the consequences are deadly for our organizations. Take this "trend tracker’s" assertion that talking about aging populations is passé:
- Have we suddenly figured out how to replace 50% of the world’s experts in everything from satellite design to forestry?
- Have we figured out how a smaller generation will pay for the social entitlement of retiring Boomers around the world?
- Have we explored what kinds of new products and services will be required for the largest, longest-living generation in history?
Not even close. Yet, if you think of strategic trends with a fad mindset, you think, "Aging Boomer discussion is so 2006. Let’s talk about Al Gore’s Oscar!
" For the executive, no mentality could be more frivolous or dangerous. The point is, both climate change and aging populations are going to pose strategic challenges for us. As well as biotechnology. And nanotechnology. And youth populations in Africa and the Middle East. And oil scarcity. And 100 other trends. It’s ALL going to affect you.
Just as I say "Two mentions in Newsweek does not a trend make," a corollary to that is, "Seven mentions in Newsweek, Time, and your hometown paper does not mean the trend is yesterday’s news." Would it have made sense if economists in 1855 decided that the industrial economy was passé just because they had seen ten articles about textile factories?
That’s the thing about the future — we’ve got a lot of it yet to come. So let’s get discussing it.
-Garland
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